Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private</li>
<li>NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming 
JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private
NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching. 


Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) - Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that the major swing factor of global e-commerce platform is the global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies, including Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop (or ‘STAT’).</li>
<li>The Japanese market is a good example. We upgraded Mercari to BUY because we believe that its second-hand eCommerce model addresses the issue of product supply.</li>
<li>We downgraded Z-Holdings to SELL as its B2C model lacks an advantage in product supply and has already lost market share.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that the major swing factor of global e-commerce platform is the global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies, including Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop (or ‘STAT’).
The Japanese market is a good example. We upgraded Mercari to BUY because we believe that its second-hand eCommerce model addresses the issue of product supply.
We downgraded Z-Holdings to SELL as its B2C model lacks an advantage in product supply and has already lost market share.


[Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US out for Independence Day - not a lot to report; European Stocks gain, and volumes 1/3 of normal;  META to Launch "Thread", to compete with Twitter </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.5; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery costs by 50%; Rakuten to list Securities biz</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Lawson - if management can execute on their MTP, the stock is super cheap. Potential growth, Yield, Take out play ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US out for Independence Day - not a lot to report; European Stocks gain, and volumes 1/3 of normal;  META to Launch "Thread", to compete with Twitter 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.5; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery costs by 50%; Rakuten to list Securities biz
NUGGET.  Lawson - if management can execute on their MTP, the stock is super cheap. Potential growth, Yield, Take out play ?


Ohayo Japan| US Out - Quiet;  "Thread" To Face off Vs "Twitter"; NUGGET: Lawson - Gunning for Growth

<ul>
<li>XPEV: XPeng begins pre-sales of G6 with starting price at RMB 225k (+)</li>
<li>Nayuki: Chabaidao finished a round of private equity financing at RMB18bn valuation</li>
<li>PDD/ 4385.JP/ 4689.JP/ 4755.JP/ AMZN.US/ Shein: Temu could soon launch in Japan (+/-/-/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


XPEV: XPeng begins pre-sales of G6 with starting price at RMB 225k (+)
Nayuki: Chabaidao finished a round of private equity financing at RMB18bn valuation
PDD/ 4385.JP/ 4689.JP/ 4755.JP/ AMZN.US/ Shein: Temu could soon launch in Japan (+/-/-/-/-/-)


China TMT UpdateXPEV/TESLA/Nayuki/PDD/4385.JP/ 4689.JP/4755.JP: Pre-Sales of G6, Temu Comes to Japan

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) - Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

Fitch downgrade spurs risk off; NKY Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4; Japan likely sees some follow-through on yesterday's sell-off; ...

Mark Chadwick

[Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT

We anticipate that the major swing factor of global e-commerce platform is the global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies, including Shein,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ohayo Japan| US Out - Quiet; "Thread" To Face off Vs "Twitter"; NUGGET: Lawson - Gunning for Growth

US out for 4th of July - Global markets quiet; NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; NKY -1% as JP succumbs to profit taking; Toyota to cut Solid State battery...

Mark Chadwick

China TMT UpdateXPEV/TESLA/Nayuki/PDD/4385.JP/ 4689.JP/4755.JP: Pre-Sales of G6, Temu Comes to Japan

XPEV: XPeng begins pre-sales of G6 ， Nayuki: Chabaidao finished a round of private equity financing at RMB18bn valuation，PDD/4385.JP/4689.JP/...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

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