Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. </li>
<li>Risk concentrations are increasing. </li>
</ul>


Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. 
Risk concentrations are increasing. 


Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Event-Driven

Sprint shares now trade at a 43% discount to the implied value based on the original merger terms, down from &lt;10% last July when the DoJ approved the deal and from 27% when we last wrote about this in November. Based on our range of outcomes, that appears to imply a 60%+ probability that the TMUS merger will not pass muster in the courts. That ruling should be out in February and whilst we do not have any special insight (nor does anyone which is why deal odds are priced like this) we did think it worthwhile to look at the state of play. TMUS should trade steadily no matter the result whilst Sprint is almost assuredly mis-priced as markets give meaningful weight to both sides of a binary outcome.

Sprint shares now trade at a 43% discount to the implied value based on the original merger terms, down from &lt;10% last July when the DoJ approved the deal and from 27% when we last wrote about this in November. Based on our range of outcomes, that appears to imply a 60%+ probability that the TMUS merger will not pass muster in the courts. That ruling should be out in February and whilst we do not have any special insight (nor does anyone which is why deal odds are priced like this) we did think it worthwhile to look at the state of play. TMUS should trade steadily no matter the result whilst Sprint is almost assuredly mis-priced as markets give meaningful weight to both sides of a binary outcome.

Sprint/T-Mobile: Markets Building in a 60% Probability Deal Is Rejected

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul data-jpmucid="ul-3226601-e69194616dcf4ae0842bfb6ba5805fa7">
<li data-jpmucid="li-3226601-53581a75385447f08314f4c5f851fe55">Mizuho Made Significant Bottom-line Progress YOY in FY 2019. </li>
<li data-jpmucid="li-3226601-53581a75385447f08314f4c5f851fe55">Profit Growth Sustainability Is Questioned.  </li>
<li data-jpmucid="li-3226601-bb85d14fb03340c58eb26902fa429607">Hedging The Securities Portfolio May Not Maximize Returns. </li>
<li data-jpmucid="li-3226601-bb85d14fb03340c58eb26902fa429607">SoftBank Overhang for Mizuho and Other Creditors. </li>
</ul>


Mizuho Made Significant Bottom-line Progress YOY in FY 2019. 
Profit Growth Sustainability Is Questioned.  
Hedging The Securities Portfolio May Not Maximize Returns. 
SoftBank Overhang for Mizuho and Other Creditors. 


Mizuho Financial Group - The 'Ho You Know

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> rally off of 9,100-200 support is moving into intermediate resistance amid RSI lofty reading and brewing bear divergence that sets up a short trade to tactical support followed by upside re test in Q2 a marginally higher levels to form a higher degree cycle peak.Rally volumes have improved but starting to taper off into recent strength and we need to see buy volume deteriorate into short term strength to support a bear/short case.RSI overbought readings above 70 with non confirmation bear divergence of recent new price highs is a topping signal.The short trade lines up near 5,100/300 for a tactical pullback with 4,300/600 supports targeted. Macro support lies at 4,100. Above 5,300 would represent a breakout and reach for 2019 highs.

Softbank Group (9984 JP) rally off of 9,100-200 support is moving into intermediate resistance amid RSI lofty reading and brewing bear divergence that sets up a short trade to tactical support followed by upside re test in Q2 a marginally higher levels to form a higher degree cycle peak.Rally volumes have improved but starting to taper off into recent strength and we need to see buy volume deteriorate into short term strength to support a bear/short case.RSI overbought readings above 70 with non confirmation bear divergence of recent new price highs is a topping signal.The short trade lines up near 5,100/300 for a tactical pullback with 4,300/600 supports targeted. Macro support lies at 4,100. Above 5,300 would represent a breakout and reach for 2019 highs.

Softbank Short Targets and Re Cycle Reaction Support

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

This month, we look at the developments of 2019, and in the “In-Focus” section, we discuss the outlook for Asian HY in 2020. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  This month, we look at the developments of 2019, and in the “In-Focus” section, we discuss the outlook for Asian HY in 2020.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - 2019 In Review And 2020 Outlook - Lucror Analytics

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Global Stall Speed Growth

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sprint/T-Mobile: Markets Building in a 60% Probability Deal Is Rejected

Sprint shares now trade at a 43% discount to the implied value based on the original merger terms, down from <10% last July when the DoJ...

Kirk Boodry

Mizuho Financial Group - The 'Ho You Know

Mizuho Made Significant Bottom-line Progress YOY in FY 2019. Profit Growth Sustainability Is Questioned. Hedging The Securities Portfolio May...

Thomas J. Monaco

Softbank Short Targets and Re Cycle Reaction Support

Softbank Group (9984 JP) rally off of 9,100-200 support is moving into intermediate resistance amid RSI lofty reading and brewing bear divergence...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia HY Monthly - 2019 In Review And 2020 Outlook - Lucror Analytics

This month, we look at the developments of 2019, and in the “In-Focus” section, we discuss the outlook for Asian HY in 2020. The Asia Monthly...

Lucror Analytics

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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