Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review have been announced. There are 32 inclusions and 27 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November.</p><p>The index review is normally effective after the close of trading on  the second last trading day in August, but was postponed by 3 months this year because of the extension given to companies to file their annual reports and quarterly reports to 30 September owing to COVID-19.</p><p>These are the stocks that have been included and excluded from the index.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 181pt;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 197pt;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1766.T</td>
<td>Token Corp</td>
<td>2124.T</td>
<td>Jac Recruitment Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2222.T</td>
<td>Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd</td>
<td>2206.T</td>
<td>Ezaki Glico Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2264.T</td>
<td>Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd</td>
<td>2432.T</td>
<td>DeNA Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2317.T</td>
<td>Systena Corp</td>
<td>3254.T</td>
<td>Pressance Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2593.T</td>
<td>Ito En Ltd</td>
<td>3668.T</td>
<td>Colopl Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2811.T</td>
<td>Kagome Co Ltd</td>
<td>4246.T</td>
<td>DaikyoNishikawa Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3563.T</td>
<td>Sushiro Global Holdings Ltd</td>
<td>4587.T</td>
<td>PeptiDream Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3635.T</td>
<td>Koei Tecmo Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td>4681.T</td>
<td>Resorttrust Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4189.T</td>
<td>KH Neochem Co Ltd</td>
<td>4751.T</td>
<td>CyberAgent Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4348.T</td>
<td>Infocom Corp</td>
<td>4902.T</td>
<td>Konica Minolta Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4527.T</td>
<td>Rohto Pharmaceutical Co Ltd</td>
<td>5486.T</td>
<td>Hitachi Metals Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4686.T</td>
<td>Justsystems Corp</td>
<td>5703.T</td>
<td>Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4816.T</td>
<td>Toei Animation Co Ltd</td>
<td>5714.T</td>
<td>DOWA Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4921.T</td>
<td>Fancl Corp</td>
<td>5975.T</td>
<td>Topre Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5105.T</td>
<td>Toyo Tire Corp</td>
<td>6269.T</td>
<td>Modec Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5631.T</td>
<td>Japan Steel Works Ltd</td>
<td>6324.T</td>
<td>Harmonic Drive Systems Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5857.T</td>
<td>Asahi Holdings Inc</td>
<td>6463.T</td>
<td>TPR Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6005.T</td>
<td>Miura Co Ltd</td>
<td>6473.T</td>
<td>Jtekt Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6035.T</td>
<td>IR Japan Holdings Ltd</td>
<td>6641.T</td>
<td>Nissin Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6134.T</td>
<td>Fuji Corp (Aichi)</td>
<td>6755.T</td>
<td>Fujitsu General Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6465.T</td>
<td>Hoshizaki Corp</td>
<td>6806.T</td>
<td>Hirose Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6532.T</td>
<td>BayCurrent Consulting Inc</td>
<td>7012.T</td>
<td>Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6670.T</td>
<td>MCJ Co Ltd</td>
<td>7606.T</td>
<td>United Arrows Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6753.T</td>
<td>Sharp Corp</td>
<td>7867.T</td>
<td>Tomy Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6754.T</td>
<td>Anritsu Corp</td>
<td>8227.T</td>
<td>Shimamura Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8354.T</td>
<td>Fukuoka Financial Group Inc</td>
<td>8628.T</td>
<td>Matsui Securities Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8572.T</td>
<td>Acom Co Ltd</td>
<td>9404.T</td>
<td>Nippon Television Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9044.T</td>
<td>Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9142.T</td>
<td>Kyushu Railway Co</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9504.T</td>
<td>Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9509.T</td>
<td>Hokkaido Electric Power Co Inc</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9603.T</td>
<td>H.I.S. Co Ltd</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review have been announced. There are 32 inclusions and 27 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November.The index review is normally effective after the close of trading on  the second last trading day in August, but was postponed by 3 months this year because of the extension given to companies to file their annual reports and quarterly reports to 30 September owing to COVID-19.These are the stocks that have been included and excluded from the index.








Inclusions
Exclusions


Name
Code
Name
Code


1766.T
Token Corp
2124.T
Jac Recruitment Co Ltd


2222.T
Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd
2206.T
Ezaki Glico Co Ltd


2264.T
Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd
2432.T
DeNA Co Ltd


2317.T
Systena Corp
3254.T
Pressance Corp


2593.T
Ito En Ltd
3668.T
Colopl Inc


2811.T
Kagome Co Ltd
4246.T
DaikyoNishikawa Corp


3563.T
Sushiro Global Holdings Ltd
4587.T
PeptiDream Inc


3635.T
Koei Tecmo Holdings Co Ltd
4681.T
Resorttrust Inc


4189.T
KH Neochem Co Ltd
4751.T
CyberAgent Inc


4348.T
Infocom Corp
4902.T
Konica Minolta Inc


4527.T
Rohto Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
5486.T
Hitachi Metals Ltd


4686.T
Justsystems Corp
5703.T
Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd


4816.T
Toei Animation Co Ltd
5714.T
DOWA Holdings Co Ltd


4921.T
Fancl Corp
5975.T
Topre Corp


5105.T
Toyo Tire Corp
6269.T
Modec Inc


5631.T
Japan Steel Works Ltd
6324.T
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc


5857.T
Asahi Holdings Inc
6463.T
TPR Co Ltd


6005.T
Miura Co Ltd
6473.T
Jtekt Corp


6035.T
IR Japan Holdings Ltd
6641.T
Nissin Electric Co Ltd


6134.T
Fuji Corp (Aichi)
6755.T
Fujitsu General Ltd


6465.T
Hoshizaki Corp
6806.T
Hirose Electric Co Ltd


6532.T
BayCurrent Consulting Inc
7012.T
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd


6670.T
MCJ Co Ltd
7606.T
United Arrows Ltd


6753.T
Sharp Corp
7867.T
Tomy Co Ltd


6754.T
Anritsu Corp
8227.T
Shimamura Co Ltd


8354.T
Fukuoka Financial Group Inc
8628.T
Matsui Securities Co Ltd


8572.T
Acom Co Ltd
9404.T
Nippon Television Holdings Inc


9044.T
Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd




9142.T
Kyushu Railway Co




9504.T
Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc




9509.T
Hokkaido Electric Power Co Inc




9603.T
H.I.S. Co Ltd






JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The convenience store sector (CVS) is Japan’s most successful retail format and one that has now enjoyed almost 50 years of growth. So the sudden and unprecedented sales declines in 2020, caused by so many people staying away from city centres during the pandemic, are an entirely new test for the sector.</p><p>Temporary blips aside, this leading position is likely to endure a little longer. Even with e-commerce growing faster and likely to over take CVS as the biggest channel by 2025, CVS will take on a prominent role in the fulfilment model used by many e-commerce companies.</p><p>In the CVS sector itself, Familymart's delisting and new role spearheading Itochu's retail interests will cause ructions in a sector that has reached saturation and where increased competition will force more change and differentiation.</p><p><strong>The following is an in-depth review of the state of play in Japan's convenience store sector</strong> following the absorption of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>. The review includes:</p><ul>
<li>Full rankings of all convenience stores including sales, stores, market share, key metrics like sales per store per day etc.</li>
<li>Analysis of the current and future prospects of the big three and the outlook for the smaller players – as much targets for the big three than anything else.</li>
<li>Details on e-commerce initiatives (or the lack of them), store coverage, diversification strategies etc.</li>
<li>Updates on the pressure points of the labour shortage and franchisee rebellions.</li>
</ul><p>This insight provides a complete review of the sector and a clear picture of where convenience stores are headed in the next three years.</p>

The convenience store sector (CVS) is Japan’s most successful retail format and one that has now enjoyed almost 50 years of growth. So the sudden and unprecedented sales declines in 2020, caused by so many people staying away from city centres during the pandemic, are an entirely new test for the sector.Temporary blips aside, this leading position is likely to endure a little longer. Even with e-commerce growing faster and likely to over take CVS as the biggest channel by 2025, CVS will take on a prominent role in the fulfilment model used by many e-commerce companies.In the CVS sector itself, Familymart's delisting and new role spearheading Itochu's retail interests will cause ructions in a sector that has reached saturation and where increased competition will force more change and differentiation.The following is an in-depth review of the state of play in Japan's convenience store sector following the absorption of FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) by Itochu Corp (8001 JP). The review includes:
Full rankings of all convenience stores including sales, stores, market share, key metrics like sales per store per day etc.
Analysis of the current and future prospects of the big three and the outlook for the smaller players – as much targets for the big three than anything else.
Details on e-commerce initiatives (or the lack of them), store coverage, diversification strategies etc.
Updates on the pressure points of the labour shortage and franchisee rebellions.
This insight provides a complete review of the sector and a clear picture of where convenience stores are headed in the next three years.

Convenience Stores: Diversification and a Fight for Share as Familymart Delists

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Financials stocks and decreased in Consumer Discretionary names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Communication Services, while shorts were covered on Information Technology and Consumer Staples names.</p></div><div><p>Shorts increased in Korea for the week. Biggest increase in shorts were on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">Au Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catcher-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4957:1" rel="noopener">Catcher Technology (2474 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co (2027 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on ICBC (H) (1398 HK), PCCW Ltd (8 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) while there was short covering on Meituan (3690 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), HKEX (388 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK). Shorts increased in Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Financials stocks and decreased in Consumer Discretionary names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Nexon (3659 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) while shorts decreased on FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and Advantest Corp (6857 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Communication Services, while shorts were covered on Information Technology and Consumer Staples names.Shorts increased in Korea for the week. Biggest increase in shorts were on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), SK Hynix (000660 KS), LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and Naver Corp (035420 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), Au Optronics (2409 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT) and Catcher Technology (2474 TT) while shorts were covered on Walsin Technology (2492 TT), Nanya Technology (2408 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) and Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co (2027 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: ICBC, PCCW, Meituan, HKEX, Nexon, FamilyMart, Samsung, TSMC, Acer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of October, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$31bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 
Beverage Bottler
6.9
Poss. Scheme
25%


Coca Cola Amatil: Flat Or Fizzy?







Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 
Super registry
2.1
Poss. Scheme
30%


Link Admin/PEP: All Together Now. Again Link Admin: Hardball Tactics After Meagre Bump 



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) / Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) 
Mining
4.4
Scheme




Northern Star/Saracen: Merger Of Equals
Saracen – Trade the Northern Star Deal and Then Stay Long Northern Star




Hong Kong




CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
Airport facilities
0.3
Scheme
20.36%


CIMC-Tianda (445 HK): Scheme Offer Lead By CIMC



Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 
Mining
0.3
Pre-con Scheme
(2.43%)


Hengxing (2303 HK): Offer From Shandong Gold



Powerleader Science &amp; Tech (8236 HK) 
Cloud Computing
0.1
Merger by Absorption
14.6%


Powerleader (8236 HK): Small Deal, Trading Wide



Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 
Turbines
0.4
Merger by Absorption
68.4%


Shanghai Prime (2345 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent



Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 
Hypermarkets
2.2
MGO
2.14%


Sun Art (6808 HK): Alibaba Takes Control



Japan




Medical &amp; Biological Lab (4557 JP) 
Diagnostics
0.1
Tender Offer
23.8%


JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical &amp; Biological Labs (4557 JP)


Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)
Retailer
1.6 - 2.1
Tender Offer
45.8%/91.0%



DCM Does a Full Takeover of Shimachu - Looks Like a Strong Price. Look Again Nitori To Make a Rival Bid for Shimachu? More Fun To Go 
Gaming Out a Nitori Bid for Shimachu Nitori Bids UP For Shimachu - Now Things Slow Down  




US




HUYA Inc (HUYA US) 
Gaming
7.2
Merger



Huya – Generous for Douyu and the New Global Streaming Landscape Gets Interesting



PNM Resources (PNM US) 
Energy
4.3
Tender Offer
10%


PNM Resources - Iberdrola: Friendly Acquisition



Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) 
Events
0.1
Prelim Proposal
38.9%


Wanda Sports (WSG US): Preliminary Proposal From Dalian Wanda



Europe/UK




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 
Security Service
0.4
Cash Offer
30%


G4S - GardaWorld: Lowball Offer



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
Telco
1.0
Non-binding Offer
17%


TalkTalk - Toscafund: Preliminary &amp; Non-Binding Proposal





Source: Smartkarma Insights


The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was ~25% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (121 all-in) is ~32%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was 31.5%.



The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in October of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

15-Oct: FRB approval 20-Oct: Scheme Meeting set for the 20 Nov




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

22-Oct: Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"
23-Oct: Cardinal announced that shareholders holding 19.38% of shares out intend to accept Shandong's unconditional off-market Offer by 30 October - provided there be no superior proposal, or is Shandong extends its Offer (currently expected to close on the 30 October, unless extended). 23-Oct: Nordgold has now lodged an application with the Takeovers Panel concerning “the clear and unambiguous interpretation” of Shandong’s Last and Final Statement.
27-Oct: Nordgold has withdrawn its Takeovers Panel application. But stands its ground that Shandong's statements are materially misleading.




Citadel Group (CGL AU) 

29-Oct: Scheme Meeting set for the 1 December.




Cromwell Property (CMW AU) 

No October update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

13-Oct: DWS will not declare or pay any permitted special dividend. The Scheme payment will be fixed at A$1.20/share.




OptiComm Ltd (OPC AU) 

13-Oct: OptiComm: Aware Super's Superior Optics 15-Oct: OptiComm: Uniti Sees Aware And Raises




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

6-Oct: Mittleman bumps stake to 10.09% (from 8.50% previously) and according to media reports, opposes BGH's Scheme.    7-Oct: Village Roadshow (VRL AU) said it would proceed with the Scheme - and is engaged in correspondence with Mittleman.   12-Oct: The Independent Expert concludes the Offer is fair &amp; reasonable. 










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Allied Properties (H.K.) (56 HK) 
5-Oct: Remarkably - the judge has declined to sanction the Scheme.
Here's the judgment. Para 66 mentions the headcount test. I have no clue why - HK-incorporated companies do not adhere to a headcount test. Baffling.
12-Oct: Allied Properties (56 HK): Amateur Hour 19-Oct: Allied has appealed the High Court judgment. The Appeal will be heard on Monday, 23rd November 2020 at 10:00 a.m.



AMVIG Holdings (2300 HK) 
4-Oct: SPA is done - conditional MGO triggered. Composite doc to be dispatched on or before 15 October.  15-Oct: Composite doc has been delayed until the 2 November from the 15 October. This was to be expected. I had the 30 October in my initial timetable. 



Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 
5-Oct: In its monthly update, the company announces that there is no update.



Car Inc (699 HK) 
No October update



CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) 
30-Sep: The deal is off.



Changshouhua Food (1006 HK) 
26-Oct: Scheme doc out - court meeting to be held on the 19 November. Cheques on (or before) the 14 December. IFA (Somerley) considers the Offer fair &amp; reasonable. 



China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 
16-Oct: The despatch of the Composite Doc has been pushed out to the 18 January 2021. A significant delay. This may not complete until early 2Q21.  23-Oct: I see 12.11% of shares out have moved into Halycon, according to CCASS. That is Green Farmlands stake, part of the Offeror's.  27-Oct: 27.99% of shares out have given irrevocables to accept the MGO. That will take the Offeror's stake to 71.74%, at a minimum, under the MGO.



Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) 
7-Oct: The Composite Doc has been delayed until the 23 Oct (on or before) from the 8 October. Such a delay is pretty standard.   23-Oct: The Composite Doc for Cross Harbour Holdings (32 HK) has been despatched. The first close is the 23 Nov.



Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) 

22-Oct: Composite doc dispatched for Get Nice Holdings (64 HK). The first close is the 13 November. 




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

12-Oct: Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) announced that Haier Smart Home (600690 CH)'s application with the CSRC for the proposed issuance of HSH H shares is "progressing".




Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) 

8-Oct: Re: regulatory approvals, Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) said Canadain and US regulatory bodies have signed off on the Offer from Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Scheme doc to be despatched on or before the 9 November. 




Macau Legend Development (1680 HK) 

5-Oct: The stake sale completed. The MGO is now triggered. The Composite Doc is expected to be despatched on the 12 October. 12-Oct: The Composite Document has been delayed until the 21 October, from the 12 October. This was expected but is still a full month earlier than what I would have anticipated.   21-Oct: The Composite Document has now been further delayed until the 3 November. Getting closer to my 21 November despatch target. 




Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK) 
23-Oct: Bitauto Holdings (BITA US) shareholders approve the merger plan. The merger is expected to close on or around the 10 November. The Composite Doc for Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK)'s downstream MGO will then be despatched 7 business days later.









India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

25-Oct: Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN): Shareholder Vote Encouraging. Buying Opportunity




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No October update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No October update




J.B. Chemicals &amp; Pharmaceut (JBCP IN) 

No October update




Sequent Scientific (SEQ IN) 

No October update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-Oct: Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 8-Oct: Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 8-Oct: Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters 11-Oct: Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think) 11-Oct: Vedanta (VEDL IN): A Failed Delisting Will Now Pressure The Stock 13-Oct: VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data 21-Oct: Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell?

















Indonesia


Comments 




Bank Permata (BNLI IJ) 

No October update











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No October update



FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) 

22-Oct: FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) has now officially been designated a Security to be Delisted by the TSE. The last day of trading is November 11. Delisting Date is November 12. 22-Oct: Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659)




Hinokiya Holdings (1413 JP) 

No October update



 Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) / Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) 

26-Oct: The Right Trade May Be Hitachi




Keihin Corp (7251 JP) / Showa Corp (7274 JP) 

16-Oct: Honda Tenders Done - Now For The Residuals 28-Oct: The TOPIX exclusions on Showa Corp (7274 JP), Nissin Kogyo (7230 JP), and Keihin Corp (7251 JP) took place after the close. Now it will be the trickle-out until delisting. Delisting will be on 11 November, and the last day of trading will be on the 10th. Effective Date of the Acquisition is the 13th of November. 




Kirindo Holdings (3194 JP) 

16-Oct: In what might be a first that I have seen, Kirindo Holdings (3194 JP) today announced the Record Date for the EGM to be held to squeeze out minorities. That's not unusual. What IS unusual is that it has happened prior to the end of the Tender Offer. The EGM itself will be sometime in December. The date of the EGM may be announced on 19 October.  27-Oct: successful at 69.75%. Now we head to EGM and delisting. 




LIXIL VIVA (3564 JP) 

15 Oct:  Buyback Tender successful.




Mcubs Midcity Investment Cor (3227 JP) 

22-Oct: Unitholders have approved the Deal. Japan Retail Fund Investment (8953 JP) unit holders have also voted in favour of the transaction. 




Nichii Gakkan Co (9792 JP) 

Delisting expected 5 November




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

13-Oct: NTT Docomo: The Three Arbs and the Great Re-Allocation Trade




Ryoyo Electro (8068 JP) 

No October update




Sanyo Chemical Ind (4471 JP) /  Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) 
22-Oct: SanyoChem/Shokubai Deal Cancelled - The Trick Is NOT to Look Inside the Diaper




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No October update
















New Zealand


Comments (with links to announcements)




Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) 

3-Oct: Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) shareholders approve Scheme.  "It is anticipated that the Scheme will be implemented and shareholders will be paid NZ$6 per share on or around 29 October 2020". 
8-Oct: Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) has announced a "shareholder has lodged a Notice of Opposition to the High Court application for the Scheme of Arrangement with Asia Pacific Village Group Limited".
14-Oct: The High Court hearing has been delayed until the 20 October from the 15 October. 
15-Oct:  Metlifecare: Statutory Vacuum
18-Oct: The Panel has given a "no objection" statement. The Court does not have to rely on this statement - but it usually does. This looks (finally) done. 
20-Oct: Metlifecare: Scheme Sanctioned. Potential Bad Precedent Averted











Singapore


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP) 

Now in progress/wind-down mode




Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) 

12-Oct: Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT SP) has announced that the Trust Scheme was sanctioned by the Court yesterday and confirmed that the last trading day of the CCT units will be the 16 October.




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

No October update










Taiwan


Comments 




Boardtek Electronics (5349 TT) 
No October update



Casetek Holdings (5264 TT) 
1-Oct: According to various media sources, shareholders have approved the merger with Pegatron. 








Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No October update










Vietnam


Comments (with links to announcements)




Viglacera Corp (VGC VN) 
No October update










Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No October update









Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No October update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 
No October update



Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles (BME SM) 
No October update



CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
28-Oct: Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No October update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
5-Oct: William Hill - Caesars (Almost) Done Deal, Trading Above Terms






Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Japanese convenience store chain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> holds the lead among foreign-owned convenience store chains and the fifth place overall in the Chinese convenience store market. As of August 2020, Lawson had around 2,854 convenience stores in China.</p><p>It was <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Retail/Lawson-tests-next-step-of-convenience-store-evolution-in-China" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> yesterday that Lawson’s Chinese business is on track to post its first operating profit this fiscal year after a string of losses.</p>

Japanese convenience store chain Lawson Inc (2651 JP) holds the lead among foreign-owned convenience store chains and the fifth place overall in the Chinese convenience store market. As of August 2020, Lawson had around 2,854 convenience stores in China.It was reported yesterday that Lawson’s Chinese business is on track to post its first operating profit this fiscal year after a string of losses.

Lawson’s China Business: Turning Profitable, Though Years Away From a Significant Contribution

Japan

FamilyMart Co., Ltd. operates convenience store chains. The Company provides rice balls, hot snacks, stews, beverages, and other products. FamilyMart conducts businesses in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and other countries and regions.

Price Gauge
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FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

There are 32 inclusions and 27 exclusions from the JPX Nikkei 400. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November and the...

Brian Freitas

Asia Short Interest Weekly: ICBC, PCCW, Meituan, HKEX, Nexon, FamilyMart, Samsung, TSMC, Acer

We highlight the largest changes in short interest on stocks across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to provide insight into the positions being...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A: October 2020 Roundup

15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in October with an overall deal size of ~US$31bn. The average premium was ~25% and the YTD average...

David Blennerhassett

Lawson’s China Business: Turning Profitable, Though Years Away From a Significant Contribution

Japanese convenience store chain Lawson holds the lead among foreign-owned convenience store chains and the fifth place overall in the Chinese...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Better Late Than Never (32 Adds; 27 Deletes)

There are 32 inclusions and 27 exclusions from the JPX Nikkei 400. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 27 November and the...

Brian Freitas

Convenience Stores: Diversification and a Fight for Share as Familymart Delists

If you are looking for a full in-depth review and analysis of Japan's convenience stores sector and how things will shape up now that Familymart is...

Michael Causton

Asia Short Interest Weekly: ICBC, PCCW, Meituan, HKEX, Nexon, FamilyMart, Samsung, TSMC, Acer

We highlight the largest changes in short interest on stocks across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to provide insight into the positions being...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A: October 2020 Roundup

15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in October with an overall deal size of ~US$31bn. The average premium was ~25% and the YTD average...

David Blennerhassett

Lawson’s China Business: Turning Profitable, Though Years Away From a Significant Contribution

Japanese convenience store chain Lawson holds the lead among foreign-owned convenience store chains and the fifth place overall in the Chinese...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri