Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.8bn this week (now 25wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. </li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, 1 bank showed up in the top 20 net buys after only 1 in the top ten last week.</li>
<li>There were three ETFs in the top six SOUTHBOUND buys this past week. That was unusual. Some high div SOEs got sold. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.8bn this week (now 25wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. 
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, 1 bank showed up in the top 20 net buys after only 1 in the top ten last week.
There were three ETFs in the top six SOUTHBOUND buys this past week. That was unusual. Some high div SOEs got sold. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jul 2024); ETFs Get Bought, Banks Have Gone Missing

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Life premiums exhibited resilience on high base in Jun and diverged amid top peers.</li><li>Ping An L&amp;H grew by 14.7% YoY in Jun (vs May: +10.4% YoY) thanks to life and health segments, which expanded +16.2%/+19.7% YoY in Jun (vs May: +10.6%/ +11.0% YoY).</li><li>We regard the premium pick-up a concomitant of the Group’s strategic initiatives on healthcare and elderly care, which have fostered new growth drivers with product mix to be further optimized. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Life premiums exhibited resilience on high base in Jun and diverged amid top peers.Ping An L&amp;H grew by 14.7% YoY in Jun (vs May: +10.4% YoY) thanks to life and health segments, which expanded +16.2%/+19.7% YoY in Jun (vs May: +10.6%/ +11.0% YoY).We regard the premium pick-up a concomitant of the Group’s strategic initiatives on healthcare and elderly care, which have fostered new growth drivers with product mix to be further optimized. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Insurance - 6M24 Monthly: Life Prints Better-Than-Expected on High Base; P&C Dragged by Auto Sales

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.</li>
<li>However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> are potential deletions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> are potential adds.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.</li>
<li>There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a>. The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> is lower given the recent surge in volume.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) are potential deletions while PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) are potential adds.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.
There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in JD Logistics. The impact on SenseTime is lower given the recent surge in volume.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

<ul><li>China listed insurers reported monthly premiums in May, showing resilience of top life peers despite a high base under the pricing interest rate (PIR) cut last year.</li><li>P&amp;C growth marginally improved thanks to a sequential rebound in auto and certain lines’ recovery in non-auto segment.</li><li>Chinese regulator recently guided some insurance companies to lower the upper limit of PIR of increasing sum assured whole life plans (IWLPs) to 2.75% (vs now: 3.0%) with an intention to further reduce the cost of liabilities of the insurance industry. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China listed insurers reported monthly premiums in May, showing resilience of top life peers despite a high base under the pricing interest rate (PIR) cut last year.P&amp;C growth marginally improved thanks to a sequential rebound in auto and certain lines’ recovery in non-auto segment.Chinese regulator recently guided some insurance companies to lower the upper limit of PIR of increasing sum assured whole life plans (IWLPs) to 2.75% (vs now: 3.0%) with an intention to further reduce the cost of liabilities of the insurance industry. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance - 5M24 Monthly: Life Growth Stayed Resilient

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jul 2024); ETFs Get Bought, Banks Have Gone Missing

SOUTHBOUND saw net inflow through HK Connect for the 25th week in a row. Three ETFs were in the top 6 net buys, and only one bank in the top 20....

Travis Lundy

Insurance - 6M24 Monthly: Life Prints Better-Than-Expected on High Base; P&C Dragged by Auto Sales

Ping An L&H grew by 14.7% YoY in Jun (vs May: +10.4% YoY) thanks to life and health segments, which expanded +16.2%/+19.7% YoY in Jun (vs May:...

CMB International

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

The expected ADDs have underperformed the expected DELs in the last month and the last three months which means avoiding the standard LONG-SHORT...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

We forecast two changes in September with a 1-way turnover of 1.8% resulting in a 1-way trade of HK$950m. There will be 1-2 days of ADV to trade on...

Brian Freitas

China Insurance - 5M24 Monthly: Life Growth Stayed Resilient

China listed insurers reported monthly premiums in May, showing resilience of top life peers despite a high base under the pricing interest rate...

CMB International

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