Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

Market conditions have started to improve, and the bottom line is that all Sectors and major indexes remain above critical supports. The absence of breakdowns continues to support our overall constructive outlook, and we are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based rally is upon us.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 190 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Jul 10th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, information technology, communication services and offset by utilities, health care, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semi, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Innocare.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 190 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.5% as of Jul 10th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, information technology, communication services and offset by utilities, health care, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semi, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Innocare.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 10th): Hua Hong Semi, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Innocare

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>On June 26, an official with the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) suggested the coal price rally has run its course and is likely to see downward pressure in July on improved mine supply, higher imports and higher hydro &amp; solar power generation</li>
<li>This followed June 17 NDRC comments that the power crunch has started to ease with the arrival of the rainy season, after extreme tightness in coal availability required power rationing across multiple provinces in May-June for the second time in 6 months</li>
<li>Our text mining suggests reporting on coal shortages and power outages in key provinces peaked in the second week of June and has pulled back since, leading coal equities</li>
<li>With the cryptocurrency mining crackdown freeing up 21% of power supply in Xinjiang, 5% in Sichuan, 4% in Yunnan and 3% in Inner Mongolia, it appears the NDRC's near-term coal guidance may be credible</li>
<li>Ahead of Friday's June Non-Farm Payrolls release, we see outright declines in US reporting on labor shortages, signs of sequential improvement in temp employment, and renewed momentum in job postings</li>
<li>In Europe, we see continued elevated sentiment on the labor market, but reports of labor shortages are starting to surface; this week, the German IAB Labor Barometer, based on a survey of staffing agencies, hit its highest level since 2008 inception</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


On June 26, an official with the China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) suggested the coal price rally has run its course and is likely to see downward pressure in July on improved mine supply, higher imports and higher hydro &amp; solar power generation
This followed June 17 NDRC comments that the power crunch has started to ease with the arrival of the rainy season, after extreme tightness in coal availability required power rationing across multiple provinces in May-June for the second time in 6 months
Our text mining suggests reporting on coal shortages and power outages in key provinces peaked in the second week of June and has pulled back since, leading coal equities
With the cryptocurrency mining crackdown freeing up 21% of power supply in Xinjiang, 5% in Sichuan, 4% in Yunnan and 3% in Inner Mongolia, it appears the NDRC's near-term coal guidance may be credible
Ahead of Friday's June Non-Farm Payrolls release, we see outright declines in US reporting on labor shortages, signs of sequential improvement in temp employment, and renewed momentum in job postings
In Europe, we see continued elevated sentiment on the labor market, but reports of labor shortages are starting to surface; this week, the German IAB Labor Barometer, based on a survey of staffing agencies, hit its highest level since 2008 inception
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  NDRC Coal "Guidance", NFP Preview, European Labor Strength

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

China

Yankuang Energy Group is a Chinese energy company engaged in coal and potash mining, chemical production, power generation, and logistics. It produces thermal, PCI, and coking coal, along with chemicals such as methanol and acetic acid. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Zoucheng, Jining, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Emerging markets (EEM) appear to be bottoming; one attractive buy candidate is JD.com (JD). We also highlight buy opportunities within Energy...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Conditions Improving; Watching Cyclicals, 10-Yr Yield. Buying Casinos, Semis

We are watching the 10-year Treasury yield, small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) closely for signs that a new broad-based...

Vermilion Research

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 10th): Hua Hong Semi, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Innocare

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semi, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Innocare.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TMI Snapshots: NDRC Coal "Guidance", NFP Preview, European Labor Strength

Our text mining saw media reports of power rationing and coal shortages in China peak in the second week of June in-line with coal equities; the...

Elan Gore

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)