Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has released an <a href="https://www.global.toshiba/content/dam/toshiba/ww/ir/corporate/news/20220719_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  </li>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japan-Industrial-Partners-Bain-advance-in-bidding-for-Toshiba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.</li>
<li>Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). </li>
</ul>


Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 


Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

<ul>
<li>The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  </li>
<li>At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.</li>
</ul>


The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.
The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 announced a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  
At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.


Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The companies that are best positioned to take advantage of the 5G growth are a mix of equipment vendors, chipset companies, device makers, and enterprise solution providers. </li>
<li>The top ten companies to benefit from 5G rollout based on innovation and citation count are <strong>Samsung Electronics, Qualcomm, LG Electronics, AT&amp;T, Huawei, Intel, Google, Ericsson, Apple,</strong> and <strong>Nokia </strong>
</li>
<li>A stand-out in 5G technology rankings is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> which is punching well above its current market share in the industry. </li>
</ul>


The companies that are best positioned to take advantage of the 5G growth are a mix of equipment vendors, chipset companies, device makers, and enterprise solution providers. 
The top ten companies to benefit from 5G rollout based on innovation and citation count are Samsung Electronics, Qualcomm, LG Electronics, AT&amp;T, Huawei, Intel, Google, Ericsson, Apple, and Nokia 

A stand-out in 5G technology rankings is LG Electronics (066570 KS) which is punching well above its current market share in the industry. 


Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at 5G

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<div>
<div>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks whose main market is the TSE1, TSE2, JASDAQ, and Mothers sections (which will become the Prime Market, Standard Market, or Growth Market next April) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.</div>
<div></div>
</div><div>
<p>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review is conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. </p>
<p>Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event and others. The rebalance of 2021 took place yesterday. It was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-2021-jpx-nikkei-400-rebalance-another-year-another-mess-bigger-but-smaller" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55716" rel="noopener">The 2021 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance. Another Year, Another Mess - Bigger, But Smaller</a> - there were lots of large names deleted because of covid-related writedowns and losses, and in typical JPX Nikkei 400 construction fashion, I expect most of them will be back in the index three years from now after they have rebounded. </p>
<p>Below is a look at the lists of potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022. </p>
</div>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks whose main market is the TSE1, TSE2, JASDAQ, and Mothers sections (which will become the Prime Market, Standard Market, or Growth Market next April) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.


A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review is conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. 
Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event and others. The rebalance of 2021 took place yesterday. It was discussed in The 2021 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance. Another Year, Another Mess - Bigger, But Smaller - there were lots of large names deleted because of covid-related writedowns and losses, and in typical JPX Nikkei 400 construction fashion, I expect most of them will be back in the index three years from now after they have rebounded. 
Below is a look at the lists of potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022. 


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leader Board End-Aug 2021

Japan

Sharp Corporation manufactures consumer and industrial electronics. The Company's products include audio-visual and communication equipment such as LCD TVs and mobile phones, home appliances, and electronic components including solar cells and integrated circuits.  Sharp operates its business worldwide.

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Sharp Corp (6753 JP)

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

There is likely to be one Nikkei 225 Change around the end of Q1 2022. There may be more. We will know more on 11 Jan 2022 how many deletions are...

Travis Lundy

Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at 5G

5G connectivity is expected to spawn new business and services across sectors. We review the technological positioning of companies competing in...

Pyari Menon

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leader Board End-Aug 2021

The next annual rebalance for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Index will be in August 2022. With roughly a year to go, we take an early look at the leader...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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