Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.</li><li>This tends to be positive for banks.</li><li>It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.</li><li>A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.</li><li>But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. </li><li>It pays to differentiate, even in a boom</li></ul>

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.This tends to be positive for banks.It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. It pays to differentiate, even in a boom

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating on ADVANC, supported by its attractive valuation – with the share price implying 16% upside to our new fair value – and very limited tactical downside risk.</li><li>Our 12-month fair price has been revised upward to Bt343 (from Bt308) after lowering the required return to 4.3% (from 4.5%), in line with our new house view's market risk premium (MRP) assumption of 5.3% (from 6.8%).</li><li>The long-term earnings growth outlook remains subdued, with 2025-27E EPS growth now forecast at a CAGR of +5% (previously +7%), compared with the industry average of +9%.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating on ADVANC, supported by its attractive valuation – with the share price implying 16% upside to our new fair value – and very limited tactical downside risk.Our 12-month fair price has been revised upward to Bt343 (from Bt308) after lowering the required return to 4.3% (from 4.5%), in line with our new house view's market risk premium (MRP) assumption of 5.3% (from 6.8%).The long-term earnings growth outlook remains subdued, with 2025-27E EPS growth now forecast at a CAGR of +5% (previously +7%), compared with the industry average of +9%.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in response to the US presidential election results, with an upward trend anticipated if Kamala Harris wins and a downward trend if Donald Trump does.</li><li>The resistance levels are set at 1,494 and 1,506 points, while support levels are at 1,473 and 1,466 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>For the tactical play strategy, we suggest trading buy on selective stocks.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in response to the US presidential election results, with an upward trend anticipated if Kamala Harris wins and a downward trend if Donald Trump does.The resistance levels are set at 1,494 and 1,506 points, while support levels are at 1,473 and 1,466 points (10-day EMA).For the tactical play strategy, we suggest trading buy on selective stocks.

US Election and Composite/Services PMIs in Japan and the EU

Technical Analysis

3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund / Technical Analysis

3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund (3BBIF TB)

<ul><li>We recommend selective speculation because the index is expected to move sideways or rise.</li><li>Despite foreign investors turning to buy, EA's sharp decline for the second consecutive day weighed on market sentiment.</li><li>The index returned to move within a narrow range.</li></ul>

We recommend selective speculation because the index is expected to move sideways or rise.Despite foreign investors turning to buy, EA's sharp decline for the second consecutive day weighed on market sentiment.The index returned to move within a narrow range.

Thailand

3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund operates as a closed-end infrastructure fund. The Company invests primarily in the telecommunication network infrastructure projects. 3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund serves clients in Thailand.

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3BB Internet Infrastructure Fund (3BBIF TB)

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again. This tends to be positive for banks. It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making...

Daniel Tabbush

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

To Maintain Growth Momentum in 2H25E

We maintain our Outperform rating on ADVANC, supported by its attractive valuation – with the share price implying 16% upside to our new fair...

Krungthai XSpring

US Election and Composite/Services PMIs in Japan and the EU

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in response to the US presidential election results, with an upward trend anticipated if Kamala...

Krungthai XSpring

Recommendation: Selective Speculation

We recommend selective speculation because the index is expected to move sideways or rise. Despite foreign investors turning to buy, EA's sharp...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)