Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Unlike ADC, there're still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn't actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.</li>
<li>Investors' trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.</li>
<li>The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.</li>
</ul>


Unlike ADC, there're still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn't actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.
Investors' trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.
The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.


Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) - Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>The NRDL negotiation has completely changed the pricing method and valuation logic of innovative drugs. Based on the 3D Alphamab Simcere Agreements, 3D Medicines would have limited profits from envafolimab.</li>
<li>The majority candidates are based on license-in model. The intention to “pile up” a nice pipeline based on license-in model before IPO is obvious. 3D Medicines’s R&amp;D capability is questionable.</li>
<li>The overall quality and core competitiveness of 3D Medicines are not high. Mr. Market is not friendly to the valuation of companies based on license-in model. </li>
</ul>


The NRDL negotiation has completely changed the pricing method and valuation logic of innovative drugs. Based on the 3D Alphamab Simcere Agreements, 3D Medicines would have limited profits from envafolimab.
The majority candidates are based on license-in model. The intention to “pile up” a nice pipeline based on license-in model before IPO is obvious. 3D Medicines’s R&amp;D capability is questionable.
The overall quality and core competitiveness of 3D Medicines are not high. Mr. Market is not friendly to the valuation of companies based on license-in model. 


Pre-IPO 3D Medicines (3DM HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention; Our Thoughts on Valuation

<p>The PD-1/L1 market is one of the most competitive drug markets in the world. After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lepu-biopharma-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33231:1" rel="noopener">Lepu Biopharma (LBP HK)</a>, whose core product is PD-1, officially started its IPO process in HKEX in April this year, another bio-pharmaceutical company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3d-medicines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33790:1" rel="noopener">3D Medicines (3DM HK)</a> (“3DMed”) submitted its prospectus to the HKEX on June, 30, 2021 based on its core product PD-1 as well. 3DMed is committed to the development and commercialization of a new generation of immuno-oncology therapies with differentiated clinical profile in response to the trend of treating cancer as a chronic disease. This insight mainly analyzed its core product and the pipeline.</p>

The PD-1/L1 market is one of the most competitive drug markets in the world. After Lepu Biopharma (LBP HK), whose core product is PD-1, officially started its IPO process in HKEX in April this year, another bio-pharmaceutical company, 3D Medicines (3DM HK) (“3DMed”) submitted its prospectus to the HKEX on June, 30, 2021 based on its core product PD-1 as well. 3DMed is committed to the development and commercialization of a new generation of immuno-oncology therapies with differentiated clinical profile in response to the trend of treating cancer as a chronic disease. This insight mainly analyzed its core product and the pipeline.

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines - Insights on the Core Product, the Pipeline and the Concerns

China

3D Medicines Inc. operates as a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on the development of differentiated immuno-oncology drugs. 3D Medicines conducts businesses in China.

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3D Medicines (1244 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) - Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

We doubt the competitiveness of Alphamab's products. Its credibility has also been affected. It's more suitable for short-term trade than long-term...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines (3DM HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention; Our Thoughts on Valuation

The overall quality/core competitiveness of 3D Medicines isn't high. Its pipeline is mainly based on license-in model, which is not favored by Mr....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines - Insights on the Core Product, the Pipeline and the Concerns

This insight mainly analyzed 3D Medicines in terms of its core product envafolimab (the competition pattern and prospects), clinical-stage product...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)