Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Smartkarma's AI Co-Pilot, Smartkarma

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Smartkarma's AI Co-Pilot

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>3i Group's performance is overwhelmingly driven by its majority stake in Action, a high-growth European non-food discount retailer, which constitutes a significant portion of its Net Asset Value (NAV).</li>
  <li>The company operates a unique proprietary capital model, allowing for a long-term investment horizon, which differentiates it from traditional private equity firms that rely on third-party funds.</li>
  <li>Led by CEO Simon Borrows since 2012, 3i has undergone a significant transformation, focusing its portfolio, reducing debt, and delivering strong shareholder returns, evidenced by a tenfold increase in share price over his tenure.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  3i Group's performance is overwhelmingly driven by its majority stake in Action, a high-growth European non-food discount retailer, which constitutes a significant portion of its Net Asset Value (NAV).
  The company operates a unique proprietary capital model, allowing for a long-term investment horizon, which differentiates it from traditional private equity firms that rely on third-party funds.
  Led by CEO Simon Borrows since 2012, 3i has undergone a significant transformation, focusing its portfolio, reducing debt, and delivering strong shareholder returns, evidenced by a tenfold increase in share price over his tenure.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Royal Bank Of Canada / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.</li>
<li>Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight</li>
<li>Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.
Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight
Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.


S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

United Kingdom

3i Group plc is an international investor focused on private equity, infrastructure and debt management. The Company's investments are located across multiple continents through local investment teams in Europe, Asia and North America.

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3i Group PLC (III LN)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Primer: 3i Group PLC (III LN) - Sep 2025

3i Group's performance is overwhelmingly driven by its majority stake in Action, a high-growth European non-food discount retailer, which...

αSK

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

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