Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD48.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi, Qbe Insurance, Newcrest Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD48.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi, Qbe Insurance, Newcrest Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi, Qbe

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-rare-earth-strategic-metals-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-aus-equal-wei" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Aus Equal Weight ETF</a>, and other indices will be implemented 17 March.</li>
<li>There are plenty of stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade. Some pre-positioning would have taken place prior to announcement and positions adjusted in the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>There has been a reversal in stock performance over the last few weeks and short interest has moved a lot in some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Vaneck Aus Equal Weight ETF, and other indices will be implemented 17 March.
There are plenty of stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade. Some pre-positioning would have taken place prior to announcement and positions adjusted in the last couple of weeks.
There has been a reversal in stock performance over the last few weeks and short interest has moved a lot in some stocks.


Australia: S&P/​ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 2 March, the Court approved the distribution of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> Scheme Booklet, which was posted on 3 March 2023. The Scheme Meeting is 13 April 2023.</li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is Fair and Reasonable and in the best interests of OZL shareholders. Directors unanimously support.</li>
<li>This deal is almost certainly done. The IE report is, as is often the case, enormously informative. Watch the franking credit timing. Not a lot of spread left here. </li>
</ul>


On 2 March, the Court approved the distribution of the OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) Scheme Booklet, which was posted on 3 March 2023. The Scheme Meeting is 13 April 2023.
The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is Fair and Reasonable and in the best interests of OZL shareholders. Directors unanimously support.
This deal is almost certainly done. The IE report is, as is often the case, enormously informative. Watch the franking credit timing. Not a lot of spread left here. 


OZL Scheme Booklet Posted - 60 Days to Completion

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The index changes for the ASX Index family for the March 2023 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.</li>
<li>There will be one, two, and four changes for ASX 20, ASX 100, and ASX 200 indices, respectively. There will also be 12 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows, short interest, and recent price performance of the names involved in the rebalance event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for the ASX Index family for the March 2023 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.
There will be one, two, and four changes for ASX 20, ASX 100, and ASX 200 indices, respectively. There will also be 12 ADDs and 9 DELs for ASX 300.
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows, short interest, and recent price performance of the names involved in the rebalance event.


Quiddity ASX Rebal Mar 23: Good Hit Rate, Some Short Buildup, Decent Impact

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

Australia

Yancoal Australia Ltd. provides mining services. The Company mines, sells, exports, and markets clean and coking coal. Yancoal operates internationally.

Price Gauge
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Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi, Qbe

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

Implementation of the S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA and other indices take place at the close on Friday. There will be a lot of passive flow going...

Brian Freitas

OZL Scheme Booklet Posted - 60 Days to Completion

The OZL Scheme Booklet is out. Scheme Meeting 13 April. Completion 2 May. IE Report says "Fair and Reasonable", trading at a tight spread. ASX100...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity ASX Rebal Mar 23: Good Hit Rate, Some Short Buildup, Decent Impact

The LONG ADDs - SHORT DELs trade seems interesting. According to my estimates, the average number of days-to-trade for the ADDs and DELs are +11.3...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi, Qbe

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aurizon, Medibank Private, Coles, Yancoal Australi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia: S&P/​ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

Implementation of the S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA and other indices take place at the close on Friday. There will be a lot of passive flow going...

Brian Freitas

OZL Scheme Booklet Posted - 60 Days to Completion

The OZL Scheme Booklet is out. Scheme Meeting 13 April. Completion 2 May. IE Report says "Fair and Reasonable", trading at a tight spread. ASX100...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity ASX Rebal Mar 23: Good Hit Rate, Some Short Buildup, Decent Impact

The LONG ADDs - SHORT DELs trade seems interesting. According to my estimates, the average number of days-to-trade for the ADDs and DELs are +11.3...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete