Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a></strong>'s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celcomdigi-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:945:1" rel="noopener">CelcomDigi (CDB MK)</a></strong> / Digi.com merger last November. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)'s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi.com merger last November. 
Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a> and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. </li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.</li>
</ul>


The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.

Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. 
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.


DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> to merge. </li>
<li>The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.</li>
<li>The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) to merge. 
The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.
The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board has confirmed that it will decide on the DTAC/True merger on 20 October as it will receive yet another report from consultants on 14 October. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2412378/regulator-set-to-rule-on-telecom-merger-wednesday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Post reported</a> today that NBTC would conclude that it has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the deal but will issue measures to govern it. </li>
<li>The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share price ratio.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board has confirmed that it will decide on the DTAC/True merger on 20 October as it will receive yet another report from consultants on 14 October. 
The Bangkok Post reported today that NBTC would conclude that it has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the deal but will issue measures to govern it. 
The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share price ratio.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Set to Decide on the Merger on 20 October

Philippines

PLDT Inc. is a telecommunications and digital services provider. The company offers fixed line, wireless, and fiber optic communication technology services in The Philippines.

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PLDT (TEL PM)

StubWorld: Axiata Is Coming Up Cheap

Both the NAV discount and implied stub for Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi merger last November.

David Blennerhassett

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

The Court ruling removes an impediment to the merger. Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Set to Decide on the Merger on 20 October

The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share...

Arun George

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