ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect 2H25 earnings growth to rebound, driven by improved liquidity and prospect of govt spending acceleration.</li><li>We continue to like Telcos and are turning more constructive on banks (stable/ better NIM), while remaining ST cautious on Consumers.</li><li>We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 2H25 earnings growth to rebound, driven by improved liquidity and prospect of govt spending acceleration.We continue to like Telcos and are turning more constructive on banks (stable/ better NIM), while remaining ST cautious on Consumers.We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound

<ul><li>JLL expects landed housing and retail segments to remain strong in FY25F, driven by VAT incentives and stable mall traffic.</li><li>Chinese manufacturers continue to fuel demand for industrial estate, while hotels are resilient, but condos are still in a wait-and-see mode.</li><li>We maintain our OW rating on the sector and prefer developers offering entry-level end-users (Rp1-5bn) landed houses. Top Picks: CTRA, SSIA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JLL expects landed housing and retail segments to remain strong in FY25F, driven by VAT incentives and stable mall traffic.Chinese manufacturers continue to fuel demand for industrial estate, while hotels are resilient, but condos are still in a wait-and-see mode.We maintain our OW rating on the sector and prefer developers offering entry-level end-users (Rp1-5bn) landed houses. Top Picks: CTRA, SSIA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Overall: KTA from Meeting with JLL

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
I was wrong. In <a href="https://skr.ma/kJ6vr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair</a><a href="https://skr.ma/kJ6vr," target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> I said the Offer needed a bump, but that outcome was looking less likely.</li>
<li>The Widjaja family has now<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Revision%20of%20Offer%20Price%20and%20Extension%20of%20Closing%20Date%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=845075" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> bumped terms to S$0.375/shar</a>e, up from S$0.31/share, or a 21% increase. Terms have not been declared final.</li>
<li>The IFA's estimated fair value range for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a> was S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. Expect a follow-up opinion revising their conclusion to "Fair and Reasonable" from "Not Fair but Reasonable".</li>
</ul>



I was wrong. In Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair, I said the Offer needed a bump, but that outcome was looking less likely.
The Widjaja family has now bumped terms to S$0.375/share, up from S$0.31/share, or a 21% increase. Terms have not been declared final.
The IFA's estimated fair value range for Sinarmas Land (SML SP) was S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. Expect a follow-up opinion revising their conclusion to "Fair and Reasonable" from "Not Fair but Reasonable".


Sinarmas Land (SML SP): The Family Bumps Terms After All

<ul>
<li>Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a> not held.</li>
<li>Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.</li>
<li>The IFA agreed and said "Not Fair but Reasonable", with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.</li>
</ul>


Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
The IFA agreed and said "Not Fair but Reasonable", with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.


Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

Indonesia

PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk is an industrial property developer. The Company sells industrial estate, residential and commercial land.

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Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ)

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound

We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.

BRI Danareksa Research

Property - Overall: KTA from Meeting with JLL

JLL expects landed housing and retail segments to remain strong in FY25F, driven by VAT incentives and stable mall traffic.

BRI Danareksa Research

Sinarmas Land (SML SP): The Family Bumps Terms After All

This deserved a bump. and that is what unfolded. If in, tender. Or possibly sell at terms in the marlket. If not in, I'd look elsewhere. I doubt...

David Blennerhassett

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

This deserved a bump. But that scenario appears increasingly less likely. If illiquid arbs are your thing, and already in, I'd hit the bid. If not...

David Blennerhassett

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