Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> fell further as there was no resolution yet with MSCI. </li>
<li>Some of the large-cap banks became ATMs for foreign investors, yet the local passive pensions are buying. Low floaters like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>could still be problematic. </li>
<li>The risk is clear; the upside potential is also clear. Status quo means share prices will rebound. Some of the banks are paying high dividend. </li>
</ul>


As expected, Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) fell further as there was no resolution yet with MSCI. 
Some of the large-cap banks became ATMs for foreign investors, yet the local passive pensions are buying. Low floaters like Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)could still be problematic. 
The risk is clear; the upside potential is also clear. Status quo means share prices will rebound. Some of the banks are paying high dividend. 


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) </a>booked a strong finish to 2025, with loan growth picking up significantly in 4Q2025, whilst the bank maintained stable NIMs and reduced credit costs.</li>
<li>The bank saw corporate and commercial loans driving lending growth, while its strong CASA growth helped the bank to maintain its NIMs. Mandiri’s digital platforms remain core to its growth.</li>
<li>2026 guidance looks positive with the bank booking a strong start to the year. Valuations remain attractive, on 1.5x FY2026E PBV, ROE of 20%, and a dividend yield of 8.3%  </li>
</ul>



Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) booked a strong finish to 2025, with loan growth picking up significantly in 4Q2025, whilst the bank maintained stable NIMs and reduced credit costs.
The bank saw corporate and commercial loans driving lending growth, while its strong CASA growth helped the bank to maintain its NIMs. Mandiri’s digital platforms remain core to its growth.
2026 guidance looks positive with the bank booking a strong start to the year. Valuations remain attractive, on 1.5x FY2026E PBV, ROE of 20%, and a dividend yield of 8.3%  


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Growth Engine Engaged

Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

<ul>
<li>
Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.</li>
<li>
 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.</li>
<li>
 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.</li>
</ul>



Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.

 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.

 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.


BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's status as an emerging market is up for review due to various market anomalies, including a small free float, which rattled the market. </li>
<li>While active flows are quite sizeable, the real issue came from the passive flows, as there is no way to navigate around this. </li>
<li>Indonesia's prospect hinges on 1) the decision to increase free float to meet MSCI requirements and 2) whether the tycoons are willing to sell their stakes to raise free float. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia's status as an emerging market is up for review due to various market anomalies, including a small free float, which rattled the market. 
While active flows are quite sizeable, the real issue came from the passive flows, as there is no way to navigate around this. 
Indonesia's prospect hinges on 1) the decision to increase free float to meet MSCI requirements and 2) whether the tycoons are willing to sell their stakes to raise free float. 


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>TSMC, Tencent and Samsung remain dominant holdings, but are increasingly held as structural underweights as managers sell into strength to manage benchmark risk.</li>
<li>2025 saw sharp ownership increases in emerging leaders such as Xiaomi, CATL and Accton, while former consensus names like Meituan and Indonesian banks were heavily exited.</li>
<li>Across regions, new stock leadership is forming in MENA, LATAM and ASEAN as capital rotates away from long-standing EM favourites into a broader set of positions.</li>
</ul>


TSMC, Tencent and Samsung remain dominant holdings, but are increasingly held as structural underweights as managers sell into strength to manage benchmark risk.
2025 saw sharp ownership increases in emerging leaders such as Xiaomi, CATL and Accton, while former consensus names like Meituan and Indonesian banks were heavily exited.
Across regions, new stock leadership is forming in MENA, LATAM and ASEAN as capital rotates away from long-standing EM favourites into a broader set of positions.


EM Active Investors’ Stock Positioning Guide

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is Indonesia's largest bank, providing a wide range of banking products and services to individuals and businesses. These offerings include savings and current accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, e-banking, investment products, and insurance services. The bank was formed on October 2, 1998, through the merger of four state-owned banks and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)

Indo Downgrade: Update

Jakarta Stock Exchange Index falls as MSCI resolution remains unresolved, foreign investors sell while local pensions buy, share prices expected...

Henry Soediarko