China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In C4Q22, we expect JD’s total revenue to grow 8% YoY, largely in line with cons. Non-GAAP net margin is expected to reach 2.0%, up 0.7ppt YoY.</li>
<li>We estimate JD’s GMV growth in C4Q22 to be ~7% YoY, slightly slower than C3Q22 due to logistics disruption in October and November.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$70.0 due to for acceleration in top line as well as margin improvement. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.</li>
</ul>


In C4Q22, we expect JD’s total revenue to grow 8% YoY, largely in line with cons. Non-GAAP net margin is expected to reach 2.0%, up 0.7ppt YoY.
We estimate JD’s GMV growth in C4Q22 to be ~7% YoY, slightly slower than C3Q22 due to logistics disruption in October and November.
Maintain BUY rating and raise TP to US$70.0 due to for acceleration in top line as well as margin improvement. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.


JD(JD.US/9618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Could Happen in C2Q23

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. </li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. 
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17527:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (HTHT US)</a> aims to raise around US$260m via a follow-on ADS offering.</li>
<li>The company plans to use the proceeds mostly for investment. This will be the first deal by the company post its H-share listing in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



H World Group (HTHT US) aims to raise around US$260m via a follow-on ADS offering.
The company plans to use the proceeds mostly for investment. This will be the first deal by the company post its H-share listing in 2020.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.


H World (HTHT) Follow-On Offering - A More Genuine Need

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in China Life, Alibaba, 3SBio, JD.com.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in China Life, Alibaba, 3SBio, JD.com.


HK Short Interest Weekly: China Life, Alibaba, 3SBio, JD.com

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We expect limited incremental financial impact from pandemic spread on JD.com (JD) 4Q22 financial results.</li><li>Pandemic prevention policy and “first-wave” impacts on fulfilment all happened in 4Q22, which tested JD logistics network’s robustness, but the positive driver on GMV is the frontloaded sales generated from the Spring Festival shopping festival, which was launched in end-Dec 2022 due to the early Spring Festival in 2023.</li><li>Although a strong consumption recovery will still take time, JD’s margin expansion remains on track, driven by stringent cost control and streamlining of loss-making new business. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect limited incremental financial impact from pandemic spread on JD.com (JD) 4Q22 financial results.Pandemic prevention policy and “first-wave” impacts on fulfilment all happened in 4Q22, which tested JD logistics network’s robustness, but the positive driver on GMV is the frontloaded sales generated from the Spring Festival shopping festival, which was launched in end-Dec 2022 due to the early Spring Festival in 2023.Although a strong consumption recovery will still take time, JD’s margin expansion remains on track, driven by stringent cost control and streamlining of loss-making new business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) – Expecting limited additional financial impact from pandemic spread in 4Q22

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

JD(JD.US/9618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Could Happen in C2Q23

In C4Q22, we expect JD’s total revenue to grow 8% YoY, largely in line with cons. Non-GAAP net margin is expected to reach 2.0%, up 0.7ppt YoY.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Aequitas 2023 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2023, starting with Hong Kong. The deals you see are only a part of the...

Sumeet Singh

H World (HTHT) Follow-On Offering - A More Genuine Need

H World Group (HTHT US) aims to raise around US$260m via a follow-on ADS offering. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run it through...

Sumeet Singh

HK Short Interest Weekly: China Life, Alibaba, 3SBio, JD.com

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 30th and highlight short interest changes in China Life, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JD.com (JD US) – Expecting limited additional financial impact from pandemic spread in 4Q22

Although a strong consumption recovery will still take time, JD’s margin expansion remains on track, driven by stringent cost control and...

CMB International

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