Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>H World reported its first quarter 2026 results reflecting a continuation of recovery and growth in the hospitality industry, particularly in China’s domestic market.</li><li>The company highlighted sustained domestic travel momentum, enabled by supportive government policies such as extended spring breaks, which helped balance passenger flows across peak and off-peak periods.</li><li>Concurrently, inbound tourism benefited from expanded visa-free policies, contributing to the demand environment.</li></ul>

H World reported its first quarter 2026 results reflecting a continuation of recovery and growth in the hospitality industry, particularly in China’s domestic market.The company highlighted sustained domestic travel momentum, enabled by supportive government policies such as extended spring breaks, which helped balance passenger flows across peak and off-peak periods.Concurrently, inbound tourism benefited from expanded visa-free policies, contributing to the demand environment.

H World Group: Initiation of Coverage- Could China’s Hotel Recovery Be the Secret Catalyst Behind Its Asset-Light Growth Engine?

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
Leading Market Position with a Diversified Brand Portfolio: Huazhu is a dominant force in the Chinese hotel industry, featuring a comprehensive portfolio of brands that span from economy to luxury segments. This multi-brand strategy allows it to capture a wide spectrum of travelers and capitalize on the consumption upgrade trend in China.</li>
 <li>
Asset-Light Model and Robust Loyalty Program Driving Growth: The company's focus on an 'asset-light' manachised and franchised model facilitates rapid, capital-efficient expansion. This is powerfully supplemented by its 'H Rewards' loyalty program, one of the world's largest with over 290 million members, which drives a high proportion of direct bookings and enhances customer retention.</li>
 <li>
Exposure to Chinese Economic Cycles and Intense Competition: Huazhu's heavy reliance on the Chinese domestic market makes it susceptible to economic downturns and shifts in travel demand. The industry is also characterized by intense competition from both domestic and international hotel chains, alongside the threat of oversupply in certain markets.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Leading Market Position with a Diversified Brand Portfolio: Huazhu is a dominant force in the Chinese hotel industry, featuring a comprehensive portfolio of brands that span from economy to luxury segments. This multi-brand strategy allows it to capture a wide spectrum of travelers and capitalize on the consumption upgrade trend in China.
  
Asset-Light Model and Robust Loyalty Program Driving Growth: The company's focus on an 'asset-light' manachised and franchised model facilitates rapid, capital-efficient expansion. This is powerfully supplemented by its 'H Rewards' loyalty program, one of the world's largest with over 290 million members, which drives a high proportion of direct bookings and enhances customer retention.
  
Exposure to Chinese Economic Cycles and Intense Competition: Huazhu's heavy reliance on the Chinese domestic market makes it susceptible to economic downturns and shifts in travel demand. The industry is also characterized by intense competition from both domestic and international hotel chains, alongside the threat of oversupply in certain markets.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Huazhu Group (HTHT US) - May 2026

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $134-135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $134-135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold


Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

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China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

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H World Group: Initiation of Coverage- Could China’s Hotel Recovery Be the Secret Catalyst Behind Its Asset-Light Growth Engine?

H World reported its first quarter 2026 results reflecting a continuation of recovery and growth in the hospitality industry, particularly in...

Baptista Research

Primer: Huazhu Group (HTHT US) - May 2026

Leading Market Position with a Diversified Brand Portfolio: Huazhu is a dominant force in the Chinese hotel industry, featuring a comprehensive...

αSK Primers

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Vermilion Research

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