Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.</li>
<li>The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.</li>
<li>The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.
The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.
The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shin-Etsu results were mostly in-line with revenue beating by 5% and OP both within 1% of consensus and just a touch above guidance.</li>
<li>OP was about 6% weaker than our estimate however driven by the Electronic Materials business. </li>
<li>The lack of guidance may worry some investors but trends look positive enough that results should end up materially above consensus.</li>
</ul>


Shin-Etsu results were mostly in-line with revenue beating by 5% and OP both within 1% of consensus and just a touch above guidance.
OP was about 6% weaker than our estimate however driven by the Electronic Materials business. 
The lack of guidance may worry some investors but trends look positive enough that results should end up materially above consensus.


Shin-Etsu – FY23 Could Put Shin-Etsu Within a Step of ¥1trn in OP

<ul>
<li>After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.</li>
<li>It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. </li>
<li>Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.</li>
</ul>


After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.
It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. 
Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

<ul>
<li>In our last note we posed the question of whether Shin-Etsu could join the ¥1trn OP club. </li>
<li>The company’s upgrade of its guidance from ¥485bn to ¥675bn today suggests that in fact the answer is looking like a yes. </li>
<li>While conditions for the wafer business remain strong it may be dragged down by tech negativity leading Shin-Etsu to rely on its phenomenal PVC business instead.</li>
</ul>


In our last note we posed the question of whether Shin-Etsu could join the ¥1trn OP club. 
The company’s upgrade of its guidance from ¥485bn to ¥675bn today suggests that in fact the answer is looking like a yes. 
While conditions for the wafer business remain strong it may be dragged down by tech negativity leading Shin-Etsu to rely on its phenomenal PVC business instead.


Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  </li>
<li>Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.</li>
<li>Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.</li>
</ul>


To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  
Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.
Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)