Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining</li>
<li>Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis</li>
<li>ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue</li>
</ul>


BMRI continues to take loan market share with growth well higher than average, due to its large balance sheet and focus on mining
Despite this, its NPL ratio has been steady for several periods, suggesting good underwriting, loan emphasis
ROA recent peak was 3.14% but the bank is near there now at 2.97%, growing in recent quarters, and likely to continue


2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a>, and UNOAsia in the Philippines. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The Past week saw insights on GoTo, Grab Holdings (GRAB US),Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Matahari Department Store, BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).
There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB), and UNOAsia in the Philippines. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Grab, BFIN's Rising, and Astra Intl's Oversold

<ul>
<li>The Past Week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on Malaysia and further insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-international-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33814:1" rel="noopener">Vietnam International Bank (VIB VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victoria-care-indonesia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33750:1" rel="noopener">Victoria Care Indonesia Tbk (VICI IJ)</a>, and a SET50 Index Rebalance.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The Past Week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ), Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) and the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM).
There was also a macro insight on Malaysia and further insights on Vietnam International Bank (VIB VN), Victoria Care Indonesia Tbk (VICI IJ), and a SET50 Index Rebalance.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Christmas Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Malaysian Reshuffle, GoTo Plays Safe, and Alfamart

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SMFG can benefit like peer banks from BOJ policy change, but less so than MUFG, while at the same time, there does not appear to be a strong alpha story</li>
<li>ROE and ROA for SMFG show now expansion over the years, and this is stark contrast to MUFG, part of this appears to be due many weak subsidiaries</li>
<li>Credit costs are now averaging 23bps over the past four quarters vs 13bps during 1Q18 to 4Q19, not improving credit metrics like many others, with high write-offs.</li>
</ul>


SMFG can benefit like peer banks from BOJ policy change, but less so than MUFG, while at the same time, there does not appear to be a strong alpha story
ROE and ROA for SMFG show now expansion over the years, and this is stark contrast to MUFG, part of this appears to be due many weak subsidiaries
Credit costs are now averaging 23bps over the past four quarters vs 13bps during 1Q18 to 4Q19, not improving credit metrics like many others, with high write-offs.


SMFG (8316) - 75% Less JGBs than MUFG | Affiliates Show Worsening Profit | Credit Costs ~2x Vs Past

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key</li>
</ul>


MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance
MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance
There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key


MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

Indonesia

PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk. is a financial institution that specializes in funding and lending. The Bank offers accounts in deposits & savings, pension loans, small to medium sized business loans, and other financial products.  Bank Tabungan offers services in bank clearance, payment, collection, transfer, and payroll services.

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

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Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

2025 High Conviction - BMRI Strong Loan Growth at 2x Industry, Better Fees and Lower Costs/Assets

BMRI is taking market share of loans, growing strongly, with no worsening in credit metrics. Slightly lower NIM is offset by higher fees, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Grab, BFIN's Rising, and Astra Intl's Oversold

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

The Christmas Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Malaysian Reshuffle, GoTo Plays Safe, and Alfamart

The Past Week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ), Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) and the Philippine...

Angus Mackintosh

SMFG (8316) - 75% Less JGBs than MUFG | Affiliates Show Worsening Profit | Credit Costs ~2x Vs Past

SMFG appears less leveraged to BOJ policy changes than MUFG, especially with ~75% less JGBs. It appears a less interesting alpha story; profit...

Daniel Tabbush

MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

MUFG's purchase of Mandala in Indonesia may sound enticing, but the reality is that this is too small to matter, while perspective shows no major...

Daniel Tabbush

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