ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> booked a strong finish to the year with PPOP rising by +15.4% YoY and zero provisioning in 4Q2023, driven by loan growth of +13.9% YoY. </li>
<li>The bank's net interest income grew by +19.5% YoY, with a stable NIM of 5.5% in 4Q2023 and CASA growth of +4.3% YoY, bringing the CASA ratio to 80.3%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">BCA</a> remains a core holding amongst Indonesian banks, with conservative bank guidance of +9%-10% loan growth, stable NIMs and CoC in 2024. Valuations reflect bank returns and quality.</li>
</ul>



Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) booked a strong finish to the year with PPOP rising by +15.4% YoY and zero provisioning in 4Q2023, driven by loan growth of +13.9% YoY. 
The bank's net interest income grew by +19.5% YoY, with a stable NIM of 5.5% in 4Q2023 and CASA growth of +4.3% YoY, bringing the CASA ratio to 80.3%.

BCA remains a core holding amongst Indonesian banks, with conservative bank guidance of +9%-10% loan growth, stable NIMs and CoC in 2024. Valuations reflect bank returns and quality.


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Transacting for a Hybrid Society

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

Chandra Asri Petrochemical / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indah-kiat-pulp-paper-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20064:1" rel="noopener">Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper (INKP IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 Index and the LQ45 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ), Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ), Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper (INKP IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indonesian banks have delivered robust results YTD23 in areas like loan growth, asset quality, and ROEs; the sector is among the best in ASEAN with impressive earnings and growth potential.</li>
<li>The 4Q23 results are expected to continue the positive trends in loan growth, asset quality and ROE; the outlook for FY24 is underpinned by the strong Indonesian economy.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">BMRI IJ</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">BBNI IJ</a> are comparatively underrated in terms of valuations and have the potential for strong re-rating while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">BBCA IJ</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">BBRI </a>promise strong long-term compounding at fair valuations.</li>
</ul>


Indonesian banks have delivered robust results YTD23 in areas like loan growth, asset quality, and ROEs; the sector is among the best in ASEAN with impressive earnings and growth potential.
The 4Q23 results are expected to continue the positive trends in loan growth, asset quality and ROE; the outlook for FY24 is underpinned by the strong Indonesian economy.

BMRI IJ and BBNI IJ are comparatively underrated in terms of valuations and have the potential for strong re-rating while BBCA IJ and BBRI promise strong long-term compounding at fair valuations.


Indonesia Banks: How Are BBCA, BBRI, BMRI and BBNI Placed for 2024?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Rising mortgage rates shall be one of the drivers of higher yieldsin FY24, inline with our sector thesis.</li><li>Among the big-4 banks, BBCA has the highest contribution from mortgages at 15.4% of total loans, followed by BBNI.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Rising mortgage rates shall be one of the drivers of higher yieldsin FY24, inline with our sector thesis.Among the big-4 banks, BBCA has the highest contribution from mortgages at 15.4% of total loans, followed by BBNI.Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: On-Track for Higher Yields and NIMs in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Transacting for a Hybrid Society

BCA remains a core holding amongst Indonesian banks, with conservative bank guidance of +9%-10% loan growth, stable NIMs and CoC in 2024....

Angus Mackintosh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45. Implementation is in 4 trading days. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a lot of stocks. Most...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia Banks: How Are BBCA, BBRI, BMRI and BBNI Placed for 2024?

While the sector faces constrained re-rating potential, certain stocks, stock picking opportunities exist. Equity strategy: the potential for...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Banks: On-Track for Higher Yields and NIMs in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Transacting for a Hybrid Society

BCA remains a core holding amongst Indonesian banks, with conservative bank guidance of +9%-10% loan growth, stable NIMs and CoC in 2024....

Angus Mackintosh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index

There are 4 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45. Implementation is in 4 trading days. There is over 1 day of ADV to trade on a lot of stocks. Most...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia Banks: How Are BBCA, BBRI, BMRI and BBNI Placed for 2024?

While the sector faces constrained re-rating potential, certain stocks, stock picking opportunities exist. Equity strategy: the potential for...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Banks: On-Track for Higher Yields and NIMs in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

Maintain Overweight on the sector’s decent earnings growth, sound macro outlook, and potential rate cuts; BBCA and BMRI as ourtop picks.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Four Changes for Each Index