India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

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Equity Bottom-Up

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.</li>
<li>The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.</li>
<li>We remain long-term believers, but it is a "Short" in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations</li>
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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.
The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.
We remain long-term believers, but it is a "Short" in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Initiating Coverage – Long Term Compounder; But "Short" For Now

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">BMRI</a> is more profitable than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">BBNI</a>, less cyclical than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">BBRI</a>  and less expensive than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">BBCA</a>. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.</li>
<li>BMRI's FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated</li>
<li>BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.</li>
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BMRI is more profitable than BBNI, less cyclical than BBRI  and less expensive than BBCA. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.
BMRI's FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated
BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.


BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> has reported its 3Q24 (Dec-23) results with a one-off pension and wages revision charge which impacts the short-term earnings profile.</li>
<li>Medium-Term ROE Forecast Intact (16% to 18%) with management confident of even touching 20% in next couple of years; loan growth forecast of 14% to 16% for FY25e-FY26e.</li>
<li>We reiterate our view: P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e. SBIN has the potential to re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~40% upside). Opportunity to ADD.</li>
</ul>



State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) has reported its 3Q24 (Dec-23) results with a one-off pension and wages revision charge which impacts the short-term earnings profile.
Medium-Term ROE Forecast Intact (16% to 18%) with management confident of even touching 20% in next couple of years; loan growth forecast of 14% to 16% for FY25e-FY26e.
We reiterate our view: P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e. SBIN has the potential to re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~40% upside). Opportunity to ADD.


State Bank of India (SBIN) - 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, with ambition to join the other three big Indonesian Banks already doing it. </li>
<li>Although the current results are not on par with the other three, the bank has outlined its strategy to reach the target (1% credit cost; 37% CIR by 2028 exit)</li>
<li>Projecting a gradual re-rating to align with peers by 2028 and extrapolating book value growth over the 5-year period provides a shareholder return of 30% CAGR</li>
</ul>



Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, with ambition to join the other three big Indonesian Banks already doing it. 
Although the current results are not on par with the other three, the bank has outlined its strategy to reach the target (1% credit cost; 37% CIR by 2028 exit)
Projecting a gradual re-rating to align with peers by 2028 and extrapolating book value growth over the 5-year period provides a shareholder return of 30% CAGR


BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)</a>  management has provided long-term strategic guidance along with its 3Q24 results, which lays down a clear roadmap for the bank's progress.</li>
<li>The latest results are slightly below estimates but the medium-term factors for our thesis haven’t changed – viz. a strong franchise underscored by heavy retail footprint and incrementally improving unit-economics.</li>
<li>We reiterate "Long-term Buy", with 42% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.</li>
</ul>



IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)  management has provided long-term strategic guidance along with its 3Q24 results, which lays down a clear roadmap for the bank's progress.
The latest results are slightly below estimates but the medium-term factors for our thesis haven’t changed – viz. a strong franchise underscored by heavy retail footprint and incrementally improving unit-economics.
We reiterate "Long-term Buy", with 42% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.


IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Long-Term Guidance 2.0; Clarity of Thought Is a Source of Comfort

I am, Raj, a CA and CFA and a SEBI Registered Research Analyst.

I cover Indian BFSI sector at Smartkarma. I track all the interesting Buy/ Sell ideas across among the larger Indian and ASEAN Banks, and Life Insurance Sector. 

Indian BFSI sector is the largest by marketcap in India and has some very promising long-term trades in offer.

I am a CA and CFA with 10+ years experience in fundamental equity research across buy-side and sell-side and across geographies in BFSI segment.
My research process is primarily focused on highlighting the key risks and opportunities which would have a direct impact on stock performance. I try to cut through the noise and sort through the detail, in order to organize and simplify my thinking about a investment thesis.

Please reach out to us for customized services which can help your office or fund. Whether that be shadow coverage of specific companies, or maybe more simpler things that you want taken care of. We provide a wide range of services at super efficient cost. PM me.

Raj S, CA, CFA
India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Initiating Coverage – Long Term Compounder; But "Short" For Now

HDFC Bank has been the most successful bank in India for long, but things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd. The negatives outweigh...

Raj S, CA, CFA

BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

BMRI is a profitable, less cyclical, and inexpensive option compared to other Indonesian banks, making it an attractive investment. We also believe...

Raj S, CA, CFA

State Bank of India (SBIN) - 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate

SBI's result has one-offs impacting short-term performance. This is an opportunity to accumulate this long-term compounder.

Raj S, CA, CFA

BBNI IJ Initiation: On a Rewarding Journey to 20% ROE

BBNI IJ has stated its target of achieving an FY28e ROE of 20%, just like peers do now. Being involved in the journey can be very rewarding for...

Raj S, CA, CFA

IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Long-Term Guidance 2.0; Clarity of Thought Is a Source of Comfort

IDFC First Bank's 5-year guidance, unveiled in the latest results, adds comfort to its potential long-term success story which is already in motion.

Raj S, CA, CFA