CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.  

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is worth in the high ¥20,000s by having minorities get the value of TICO and the tax treatment benefits proposed. As-is, TICO minorities are getting screwed.</li>
<li>The $64k question is whether AusSuper which supported <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope (BSL AU)</a>'s rejection of a $30 bid, and would only support an M&amp;A proposal that was “materially higher", is now supportive. </li>
<li>It's not surprising that financial institutions are selling some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> as it continues its climb higher AND around the time of the imminent MSCI promotion.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is worth in the high ¥20,000s by having minorities get the value of TICO and the tax treatment benefits proposed. As-is, TICO minorities are getting screwed.
The $64k question is whether AusSuper which supported Bluescope (BSL AU)'s rejection of a $30 bid, and would only support an M&amp;A proposal that was “materially higher", is now supportive. 
It's not surprising that financial institutions are selling some Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) as it continues its climb higher AND around the time of the imminent MSCI promotion.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC, INNOVENT BIOLOGICS.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Feb): PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC

<ul>
<li>Back in January 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> (HLP) offered a scrip dividend option for FY23, a first for the company. Scrip dividends have been afforded ever since.</li>
<li>HLP's major shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a>, has taken full advantage of this option, increasing its stake by 4%; and potentially up to 5% when factoring in FY25 dividends.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the implied stub has widened since the commencement of scrip dividends, with the market assigning HK$600mn less for the stub ops. </li>
</ul>


Back in January 2024, Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) (HLP) offered a scrip dividend option for FY23, a first for the company. Scrip dividends have been afforded ever since.
HLP's major shareholder, Hang Lung (10 HK), has taken full advantage of this option, increasing its stake by 4%; and potentially up to 5% when factoring in FY25 dividends.
Interestingly, the implied stub has widened since the commencement of scrip dividends, with the market assigning HK$600mn less for the stub ops. 


Hang Lung (10 HK) Is Still Inexpensive. Lack Of Liquidity Not Helping

Hong Kong

Hang Lung Properties is a leading property developer and investor with a diverse portfolio in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company specializes in developing, selling, and leasing premium commercial complexes, including shopping malls and office premises, as well as residential properties. It was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the...

ClearMacro

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

HSI Index Earning Revision (Feb): PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in PING AN INSURANCE, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, TENCENT, CSPC Pharma, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Lung (10 HK) Is Still Inexpensive. Lack Of Liquidity Not Helping

HLG's implied stub has widened since the commencement of the scrip dividends in 2024, with the market assigning HK$600mn less for the stub ops.

David Blennerhassett

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