Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 39- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the unconditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a> from its Chairman and Dymon Group.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 39- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the unconditional Offer for Penguin International (PBS SP) from its Chairman and Dymon Group.
Key updates took place for Liontown Resources (LTR AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Lian Beng (LBG SP), and Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

<ul>
<li>In unprecedented fashion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>'s board adjourned the Court Meeting on the 27 April due to some voting instructions not being duly processed.</li>
<li>That reasoning had a whiff of nonsense. And just under a week later, there has been no update. Perhaps this is moot though.</li>
<li>At yesterday's AGM, disinterested shareholders turned up in record numbers to vote against stock-standard resolutions. If a similar turnout were present at the Court Meeting, the Scheme would have failed. </li>
</ul>


In unprecedented fashion, AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)'s board adjourned the Court Meeting on the 27 April due to some voting instructions not being duly processed.
That reasoning had a whiff of nonsense. And just under a week later, there has been no update. Perhaps this is moot though.
At yesterday's AGM, disinterested shareholders turned up in record numbers to vote against stock-standard resolutions. If a similar turnout were present at the Court Meeting, the Scheme would have failed. 


Sell AAG (2686 HK). A Revised Scheme Will Fail

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The AGM voting shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.</li>
<li>The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s latest AGM results show a strong dissent from minorities. The number of NO votes per resolution varied from 590.9-652.5 million or 17.40%-19.22% of outstanding shares.
The AGM voting shows that Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) will struggle to pass the scheme even if the record date is changed and some NO votes are invalidated.
The risk-reward profile remains unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (12.1% to 17.0% downside) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+12.1% to HK$1.85 offer).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): AGM Results Suggest a Scheme Fail Was Inevitable

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Estia Health (EHE AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU).
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU).


Merger Arb Mondays (01 May) - HKBN, AAG Energy, United Malt, Blackmores, Origin, Metro Pacific

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> rights issue and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adicon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33786:1" rel="noopener">ADICON Holdings Limited (ADI HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-construction-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35117:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, Lian Beng.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Yuexiu Property (123 HK) rights issue and ADICON Holdings Limited (ADI HK), Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK), Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU),  Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), Lian Beng.


Weekly Deals Digest (30 Apr) - AAG, HKBN, Blackmores, Lian Beng, Horizon Construction, Mankind

Hong Kong

AAG Energy is an international energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of coalbed methane (CBM) in the People's Republic of China. Its primary operating assets are the Panzhuang and Mabi concessions in the Qinshui Basin, Shanxi Province. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

AAG Energy (2686 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Sell AAG (2686 HK). A Revised Scheme Will Fail

The only potential positive here is if AAG/Xintai were to pay out a special dividend. In addition to the Offer Price. That's a big ask. AAG is...

David Blennerhassett