Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a>'s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone's deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 

Soho China (410 HK)'s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone's deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

<ul>
<li>Back on 1 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)</a> entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, down 22.8% from the initial terms.</li>
<li>This merger was approved at an EGM on the 27 April and became effective on the 6 May.</li>
<li>Court proceedings have commenced for dissenters, accounting for a staggering 30.9% of shares out. It's not just "fair value" under the microscope; but the legality of the downward revision.</li>
</ul>


Back on 1 March, 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, down 22.8% from the initial terms.
This merger was approved at an EGM on the 27 April and became effective on the 6 May.
Court proceedings have commenced for dissenters, accounting for a staggering 30.9% of shares out. It's not just "fair value" under the microscope; but the legality of the downward revision.


51job's Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings

Glory Star New Media Group Holdings / Event-Driven

Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-star-new-media-group-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33080:1" rel="noopener">Glory Star New Media Group H (GSMG US)</a> (GSMG), a leading digital media platform and content-driven e-commerce company in China, has <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001738758/000121390022038380/ea162668ex99-1_glorystar.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> a definitive privatisation transaction with Cheers Inc.</li>
<li>Cheers is offering US$1.55/share, in cash, a 76% premium to GSMG's undisturbed price, and a 22% premium to the US$1.27/share proposal from GSMG's CEO Bing Zhang. </li>
<li>The buyer consortium owns ~72.8% of shares out and this Offer requires a two-thirds vote from shareholders. This looks done with expected completion this year. But it's a low-balled Offer.</li>
</ul>



Glory Star New Media Group H (GSMG US) (GSMG), a leading digital media platform and content-driven e-commerce company in China, has entered a definitive privatisation transaction with Cheers Inc.
Cheers is offering US$1.55/share, in cash, a 76% premium to GSMG's undisturbed price, and a 22% premium to the US$1.27/share proposal from GSMG's CEO Bing Zhang. 
The buyer consortium owns ~72.8% of shares out and this Offer requires a two-thirds vote from shareholders. This looks done with expected completion this year. But it's a low-balled Offer.


Offensively Cheap Homecoming For Glory Star New Media

<ul>
<li>For the month of April, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~36%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of April, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~36%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).</li>
<li>This week, the highest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-enterprises-urban-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29131:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>, Uniti Group.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).
This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU). 
The lowest gross spreads are Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US), China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Uniti Group.


Merger Arb Mondays (2 May) - Dongzheng AFC, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link, Ramsay

China

51job, Inc. provides integrated human resource services in China, with a strong focus on recruitment related services.  The Company's recruitment related services are delivered in both print and online formats.

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51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

51job's Egregious Offer: Dissentient Shareholders Commence Court Proceedings

The key contentious issue in the 51job transaction is the legal basis for reducing the term to US$61/share from US$79.05/share. I don't see the...

David Blennerhassett

Offensively Cheap Homecoming For Glory Star New Media

Trading at a 17.4%/40.9% gross/annualised spread, assuming late December completion. That's attractive. Get involved if you've read this far.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: April 2022 Roundup

For the month of April, nine new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (2 May) - Dongzheng AFC, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link, Ramsay

This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng AFC (48.7%), Yashili (41.2%), VNET (34.0%), Sezzle (21.9%), Link (8.7%), Ramsay (7.9%),...

Arun George

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