Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).</li>
<li>SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. </li>
<li>Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.</li>
</ul>


The majority of the investors placed orders at 26,000 won, which is the lower end of the IPO price range (26,000 won to 31,800 won).
SGIC held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be 26,000 won) will be revealed on 4 March. 
Our updated base case valuation of SGIC is base case target price of 28,925 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a negative view of this deal.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung Life isn't getting a boost from Samsung Fire, so they need to stay focused on managing equity to maintain their K-ICS ratio.</li>
<li>They’ll use capital securities issuance as a quick fix but must also monitor their Samsung Electronics stake, a major asset, to manage the situation effectively.</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics will likely focus on dividends over buybacks. Watch for a pair trade setup between common and preferred shares, favoring long positions on preferreds.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Life isn't getting a boost from Samsung Fire, so they need to stay focused on managing equity to maintain their K-ICS ratio.
They’ll use capital securities issuance as a quick fix but must also monitor their Samsung Electronics stake, a major asset, to manage the situation effectively.
Samsung Electronics will likely focus on dividends over buybacks. Watch for a pair trade setup between common and preferred shares, favoring long positions on preferreds.


Clarifying Samsung Life’s Position on How Samsung Electronics Structures Its Shareholder Returns

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 17 February.</li>
<li>The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&amp;A, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Orion Corp, and Samsung Life Insurance. </li>
<li>We started to incorporate top negative catalysts along with positive catalysts in our top stock picks bi-weekly. Top negative catalyst is tariffs. We tried to exclude companies exposed to tariffs.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 17 February.
The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&amp;A, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Orion Corp, and Samsung Life Insurance. 
We started to incorporate top negative catalysts along with positive catalysts in our top stock picks bi-weekly. Top negative catalyst is tariffs. We tried to exclude companies exposed to tariffs.


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (17 February 2025)

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

<ul>
<li>Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.</li>
<li>Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.</li>
<li>Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card's value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.
Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.
Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card's value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.


Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

South Korea

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

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Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp held internal discussions to set the public offering price at 26,000 won. The final price (which is likely to be...

Douglas Kim

Clarifying Samsung Life’s Position on How Samsung Electronics Structures Its Shareholder Returns

This post clarifies Samsung Life’s position on how Samsung Electronics structures its shareholder returns in the upcoming value-up disclosure.

Sanghyun Park

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (17 February 2025)

The top 10 stock picks (bi-weekly) include Hyundai G.F. Holding, Binggrae, Cheil Worldwide, Hana Tour, Samsung Electronics (pref), Samsung E&A,...

Douglas Kim

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

This post makes a call on when the remaining three of Samsung’s financial players (other than Samsung Fire) will drop their value-up announcements.

Sanghyun Park

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