Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. </li>
<li>The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.</li>
<li>Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.</li>
</ul>


Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. 
The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.
Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.


Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20269:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP)</a> and Mizuho Trust &amp; Banking are looking to raise around US$180m through the sale of their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inabata-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5558:1" rel="noopener">Inabata &amp; Co (8098 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal is a large one to digest, at 90 days of three month ADV and 15% of current mcap. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP) and Mizuho Trust &amp; Banking are looking to raise around US$180m through the sale of their stake in Inabata &amp; Co (8098 JP).
The deal is a large one to digest, at 90 days of three month ADV and 15% of current mcap. 
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Inabata & Co Placement - Should Come as a Surprise

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>While the Bank of Japan didn't change monetary policy -it just delays the inevitable.</li>
<li>Rate differentials have only one way to go and will benefit the JPY.</li>
<li>Position now for a strong JPY as the market anticipates the change.</li>
</ul>


While the Bank of Japan didn't change monetary policy -it just delays the inevitable.
Rate differentials have only one way to go and will benefit the JPY.
Position now for a strong JPY as the market anticipates the change.


Clarence Chu

Evolution Mining / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> is looking to raise around US$350m to partially fund its acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold mines.</li>
<li>While the acquisition wasn’t explicitly flagged, the firm has guided that it had been eyeing acquisitions into gold/copper pathways. Thus, we would argue that the deal is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>That being said, at 14 days of three month ADV, the deal isn’t a particularly small one for the firm to digest.</li>
</ul>



Evolution Mining (EVN AU) is looking to raise around US$350m to partially fund its acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold mines.
While the acquisition wasn’t explicitly flagged, the firm has guided that it had been eyeing acquisitions into gold/copper pathways. Thus, we would argue that the deal is somewhat well flagged.
That being said, at 14 days of three month ADV, the deal isn’t a particularly small one for the firm to digest.


Evolution Mining Placement - Back to Equity Markets Again to Fund Another M&A Deal

Japan

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

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Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Inabata & Co Placement - Should Come as a Surprise

Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP) and Mizuho Trust & Banking are looking to raise around US$180m through the sale of their stake in Inabata & Co (8098 JP).

Ethan Aw

Keep Buying the Japanese Yen

Bank of Japan inaction is only delaying the inevitable with it only being a matter of time before the JPY strengthens as a result of normalised...

Rikki Malik

Evolution Mining Placement - Back to Equity Markets Again to Fund Another M&A Deal

Evolution Mining (EVN AU) is looking to raise around US$350m to partially fund its acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

​Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Inabata & Co Placement - Should Come as a Surprise

Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP) and Mizuho Trust & Banking are looking to raise around US$180m through the sale of their stake in Inabata & Co (8098 JP).

Ethan Aw

Keep Buying the Japanese Yen

Bank of Japan inaction is only delaying the inevitable with it only being a matter of time before the JPY strengthens as a result of normalised...

Rikki Malik

Evolution Mining Placement - Back to Equity Markets Again to Fund Another M&A Deal

Evolution Mining (EVN AU) is looking to raise around US$350m to partially fund its acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold...

Clarence Chu

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...