Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Sumitomo Precision Products / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> announced a bid for equity affiliate (they own 27+% but Nippon Steel 15%, top 2 is 40+%) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-precision-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5797:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Precision Products (6355 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>It's a one-year high and 4-year high price, and 8x average 10yr EV/EBITDA but 4.6x 2024e EBITDA from the Mid Term Plan. And way below a 10-year high. </li>
<li>This gets done if Retail agrees to the tender. If 50% put in, that should do it. So I expect this gets done.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced a bid for equity affiliate (they own 27+% but Nippon Steel 15%, top 2 is 40+%) Sumitomo Precision Products (6355 JP). 
It's a one-year high and 4-year high price, and 8x average 10yr EV/EBITDA but 4.6x 2024e EBITDA from the Mid Term Plan. And way below a 10-year high. 
This gets done if Retail agrees to the tender. If 50% put in, that should do it. So I expect this gets done.


Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp - Likely To Get Done

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> on 1 November reported its results for H1 2022. H1 Revenue +37.1%yoy, OP+27.2%yoy, NP+33.2%yoy to ¥539bn. Full-year NP forecast +22.5% to ¥980bn.</li>
<li>Mitsui raised its dividend forecast (previously scheduled to rise from ¥105/share to ¥120/share) to ¥130/share and announced a ¥140bn buyback, adding to the ¥100bn announced in May completed in September.</li>
<li>The first ¥58.6bn was done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Now there is another ¥79.4bn to go. There's also a fair bit of index selling the next 6mos.</li>
</ul>



Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) on 1 November reported its results for H1 2022. H1 Revenue +37.1%yoy, OP+27.2%yoy, NP+33.2%yoy to ¥539bn. Full-year NP forecast +22.5% to ¥980bn.
Mitsui raised its dividend forecast (previously scheduled to rise from ¥105/share to ¥120/share) to ¥130/share and announced a ¥140bn buyback, adding to the ¥100bn announced in May completed in September.
The first ¥58.6bn was done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. Now there is another ¥79.4bn to go. There's also a fair bit of index selling the next 6mos.


Mitsui & Co (8031) Buyback - Big Profit, Big Div, Big Buyback, Some Index Selling

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We discuss a pair trade among the major Japanese trading companies. We propose going long on Marubeni Corp and going short on Itochu. </li>
<li>We believe Marubeni has one of the most attractive valuations among the five major Japanese trading companies in terms of ROE vs. P/B and Itochu is the least attractive.</li>
<li>We like Marubeni's strength in food and agri businesses. Itochu is more dependent on metals, minerals and energy sectors which tend to be more volatile. </li>
</ul>


We discuss a pair trade among the major Japanese trading companies. We propose going long on Marubeni Corp and going short on Itochu. 
We believe Marubeni has one of the most attractive valuations among the five major Japanese trading companies in terms of ROE vs. P/B and Itochu is the least attractive.
We like Marubeni's strength in food and agri businesses. Itochu is more dependent on metals, minerals and energy sectors which tend to be more volatile. 


A Pair Trade of Japanese General Trading Companies: Long Marubeni & Short Itochu

Posco International Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

Posco International Corporation (047050 KS)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we review Warren Buffett's stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. </li>
<li>The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher commodities prices. This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including Japanese and Korean trading companies.
</li>
<li>We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we review Warren Buffett's stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. 
The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher commodities prices. This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including Japanese and Korean trading companies.

We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. 


Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

<ul>
<li>Itochu today announced a buyback program to buy US$500mm+ in the next 10 weeks. </li>
<li>Net income growth, a rising dividend, and balanced risk book help it perform with low beta and medium correlation to peers. </li>
<li>The low volatility-relative multiple is supportive, and the buyback helps, but style bias vs Peers matters more. </li>
</ul>


Itochu today announced a buyback program to buy US$500mm+ in the next 10 weeks. 
Net income growth, a rising dividend, and balanced risk book help it perform with low beta and medium correlation to peers. 
The low volatility-relative multiple is supportive, and the buyback helps, but style bias vs Peers matters more. 


Short-Term Itochu Buyback - A Cushion, But Style Bias Matters More

Japan

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

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Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)

Sumitomo Precision Products (6355) Buyout by Sumitomo Corp - Likely To Get Done

Sumitomo Corp has launched a takeover bid for Sumitomo Precision Products (6355). I expect they have half the votes they need in the bag, and the...

Travis Lundy

Mitsui & Co (8031) Buyback - Big Profit, Big Div, Big Buyback, Some Index Selling

Mitsui Corp last week announced strong results and upward guidance, especially in energy. Consensus says Mar-23 is the cycle peak. Higher div,...

Travis Lundy

A Pair Trade of Japanese General Trading Companies: Long Marubeni & Short Itochu

We discuss a pair trade among the major Japanese trading companies. We propose going long on Marubeni Corp and going short on Itochu.

Douglas Kim

Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

We would focus on GS Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could...

Douglas Kim

Short-Term Itochu Buyback - A Cushion, But Style Bias Matters More

Itochu has announced a buyback to execute in the next 10 weeks. It is a decent part of ADV but not overwhelming. It should support the stock vs...

Travis Lundy

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