Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.</li>
<li>The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> along with large capping changes.</li>
<li>The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.</li>
</ul>


To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.


NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.</li>
<li>In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB's loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.</li>
<li>Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won't be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.</li>
</ul>


In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.
In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB's loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.
Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won't be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.


HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.</li>
<li>Consensus rating: predominantly "Buy" from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.</li>
<li>The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025</a>.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
Consensus rating: predominantly "Buy" from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.


HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and support from CRR cut in Dec’24.</li><li>Since the merger, the bank has maintained its NIMs in a narrow range of 3.4-3.5% and the management expects to maintain margins within a similar range, barring quarterly variations.</li><li>The yield repricing on repo-linked loans generally happens within a quarter, with mortgage and corporate loans repricing immediately. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and support from CRR cut in Dec’24.Since the merger, the bank has maintained its NIMs in a narrow range of 3.4-3.5% and the management expects to maintain margins within a similar range, barring quarterly variations.The yield repricing on repo-linked loans generally happens within a quarter, with mortgage and corporate loans repricing immediately. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank Ltd. - NIMs Surprise; Full Impact of Rate Cuts to Be Visible from Q1FY26 Onwards!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our insight in January 14th 2025</a> signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.</li>
<li>Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).

Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.


Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

SEBI's proposal will result in 2 adds for the NSEBANK Index plus big downward capping for HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. Estimated one-way turnover of...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

FY26 is expected to be the first normalization year for HDFCB post the merger. HDFC Bank is all set to bring its loan growth back in line with its...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

HDFC Bank momentum has stalled in recent weeks but the stock maintains strong growth outlook with average 12-month target of ₹2,194 and "Buy"...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank Ltd. - NIMs Surprise; Full Impact of Rate Cuts to Be Visible from Q1FY26 Onwards!

NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and...

Axis Direct

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

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NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

SEBI's proposal will result in 2 adds for the NSEBANK Index plus big downward capping for HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. Estimated one-way turnover of...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

FY26 is expected to be the first normalization year for HDFCB post the merger. HDFC Bank is all set to bring its loan growth back in line with its...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

​HDFC Bank momentum has stalled in recent weeks but the stock maintains strong growth outlook with average 12-month target of ₹2,194 and "Buy"...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank Ltd. - NIMs Surprise; Full Impact of Rate Cuts to Be Visible from Q1FY26 Onwards!

NIMs remain priority: In Q4FY25, HDFCB’s NIMs surprised positively, inching up by ~11bps QoQ, supported by stable CoF, lower interest reversals and...

Axis Direct

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

​HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank momentum has stalled in recent weeks but the stock maintains strong growth outlook with average 12-month target of ₹2,194 and "Buy"...

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...