Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.</li>
<li>Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.</li>
<li>HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.</li>
</ul>


Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.
Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.
HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HDFCB saw steady quarter; core PAT was 1.5% better to PLe owing to lower opex and provisions while loan growth and NIM were broadly in-line.</li><li>Overall PCR fell by 2% QoQ to 68%, but PCR ex-agri was stable QoQ at 71%.</li><li>Focus on reducing LDR continues as despite CRB/retail growth of 2.7%/2.1% QoQ, IBPC sell-down of Rs1.4trn in Q3FY25 remains elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFCB saw steady quarter; core PAT was 1.5% better to PLe owing to lower opex and provisions while loan growth and NIM were broadly in-line.Overall PCR fell by 2% QoQ to 68%, but PCR ex-agri was stable QoQ at 71%.Focus on reducing LDR continues as despite CRB/retail growth of 2.7%/2.1% QoQ, IBPC sell-down of Rs1.4trn in Q3FY25 remains elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank - Margins and PSLC Cost Remain Key Monitorables

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported 3QFY25 net profit of INR167.4b (2.2% YoY growth, in line).</li><li>NII grew 7.7% YoY to INR306.5b (in line).</li><li>NIMs contracted 3bp QoQ to 3.43%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported 3QFY25 net profit of INR167.4b (2.2% YoY growth, in line).NII grew 7.7% YoY to INR306.5b (in line).NIMs contracted 3bp QoQ to 3.43%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank - Earnings in Line; Asset Quality Blips Amidst Seasonality

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Progressing well on LDR improvement; Growth momentum to resume from FY26: In line with HDFCB’s stance of improving LDR aggressively to pre-merger levels of mid-80%, the bank has been progressing well with deposit growth outpacing credit growth.</li><li>In Q3FY25, LDR stood at 98.2% vs 99.8% QoQ. The management has reiterated its guidance of limiting growth to below systemic growth in FY25 to accelerate LDR improvement.</li><li>FY26 growth will align with industry growth, gradually improving (outpacing industry growth) from FY27E onwards. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Progressing well on LDR improvement; Growth momentum to resume from FY26: In line with HDFCB’s stance of improving LDR aggressively to pre-merger levels of mid-80%, the bank has been progressing well with deposit growth outpacing credit growth.In Q3FY25, LDR stood at 98.2% vs 99.8% QoQ. The management has reiterated its guidance of limiting growth to below systemic growth in FY25 to accelerate LDR improvement.FY26 growth will align with industry growth, gradually improving (outpacing industry growth) from FY27E onwards. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank Ltd. - Progressing Well on LDR Improvement; Outlier on Asset Quality!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.</li>
<li>SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.</li>
<li>The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.</li>
</ul>


In May, SEBI recommended changes to the minimum number of constituents for non-benchmark indices and the capping for those indices. Then came the market consultation in August.
SEBI has now confirmed the changes along with the timeline for capping changes to the largest stocks in the index.
The changes could commence in December and continue till March. The adds will take place in December and weight changes for the largest stocks will take place in 4 tranches.


NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes to Result in Big Flows

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

Despite high competitive intensity, HDFCB has seen strong deposits growth. Its post-merger liquidity and credit-deposit metrics have come into...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank - Margins and PSLC Cost Remain Key Monitorables

HDFCB saw steady quarter; core PAT was 1.5% better to PLe owing to lower opex and provisions while loan growth and NIM were broadly in-line.

Prabhudas Lilladhar

HDFC Bank - Earnings in Line; Asset Quality Blips Amidst Seasonality

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported 3QFY25 net profit of INR167.4b (2.2% YoY growth, in line). NII grew 7.7% YoY to INR306.5b (in line). NIMs contracted 3bp...

Motilal Oswal

HDFC Bank Ltd. - Progressing Well on LDR Improvement; Outlier on Asset Quality!

In line with HDFCB’s stance of improving LDR aggressively to pre-merger levels of mid-80%, the bank has been progressing well with deposit growth...

Axis Direct

NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes to Result in Big Flows

The methodology and capping changes for the Nifty Bank Index will be implemented in 4 tranches, likely ending in March. The flows are big and the...

Brian Freitas

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