IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. </li>
<li>Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).</li>
</ul>



L'Occitane (973 HK) announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.
The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. 
Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).


L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> at a likely 30% premium. </li>
<li>The beauty industry is historically ripe with M&amp;A deals.  It is not hard to see why, as the global beauty sector trades at a hefty valuation multiple. </li>
<li>In this insight, we brainstorm for potential buyers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and analyze the viability of such. </li>
</ul>


Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. 
The beauty industry is historically ripe with M&amp;A deals.  It is not hard to see why, as the global beauty sector trades at a hefty valuation multiple. 
In this insight, we brainstorm for potential buyers of Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and analyze the viability of such. 


Shiseido (4911 JP):  Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl's shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. </li>
</ul>



Fancl Corp (4921 JP) recommended Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,690, a 42.7% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The timing looks opportunistic as Fancl's shares are down 20% YTD. The offer period is from 17 June to 29 July.
While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. 


Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mao-geping-cosmetics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41297:1" rel="noopener">Mao Geping Cosmetics</a> is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



Mao Geping Cosmetics is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.


Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO - Riding on the Founder’s Reputation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> reported 1Q24 results last Friday.  Core operating profit declined less than expected at -10% yoy, and exceeded the management's target. </li>
<li>The beat was driven by robust growth in Japan, Americas, and EMEA, while China steadily recovered.  Overall sales growth was 4% yoy in the quarter. </li>
<li>As a reminder, the investment thesis for Shiseido is twofold:  a recovering China mainly due to one-off concerns (nuclear wastewater), and a margin recovery story in Japan. </li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP) reported 1Q24 results last Friday.  Core operating profit declined less than expected at -10% yoy, and exceeded the management's target. 
The beat was driven by robust growth in Japan, Americas, and EMEA, while China steadily recovered.  Overall sales growth was 4% yoy in the quarter. 
As a reminder, the investment thesis for Shiseido is twofold:  a recovering China mainly due to one-off concerns (nuclear wastewater), and a margin recovery story in Japan. 


Shiseido (4911 JP):  1Q24 Results Beat; Recovery On Track

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Shiseido (4911 JP): Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. In this insight, we...

Steve

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

The timing is opportunistic. While the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, it is light compared to historical trading ranges. Securing...

Arun George

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO - Riding on the Founder’s Reputation

Mao Geping Cosmetics is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the company's past performance.

Sumeet Singh

Shiseido (4911 JP): 1Q24 Results Beat; Recovery On Track

Shiseido is up 5.3% today vs. Nikkei 225 down 1.2%. The reason is probably due to a broker upgrade. I believe a lot of further upside remains. ...

Steve

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L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the 90% minimum acceptance condition. This looks like a done deal. At the current...

Arun George

Shiseido (4911 JP): Brainstorming For Potential Buyers

Today, according to public news, Kirin Holdings will launch a tender offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) at a likely 30% premium. In this insight, we...

Steve

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP)’s Light JPY2,690 Tender Offer

The timing is opportunistic. While the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, it is light compared to historical trading ranges. Securing...

Arun George

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO - Riding on the Founder’s Reputation

Mao Geping Cosmetics is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the company's past performance.

Sumeet Singh

Shiseido (4911 JP): 1Q24 Results Beat; Recovery On Track

Shiseido is up 5.3% today vs. Nikkei 225 down 1.2%. The reason is probably due to a broker upgrade. I believe a lot of further upside remains. ...

Steve