Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.</li>
<li>Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.</li>
<li>Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.
Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.
Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> reported 4Q23 results last week.  Overall, operating profit of Y40bn in FY23 was Y5bn higher than previous company guidance of Y35bn.</li>
<li>However, Shiseido's China business weakened materially in 4Q23, and 2024/25 guidance seems a bit light. </li>
<li>I believe FY24 should not be used as a base for valuation because the nuclear wastewater impact is likely to linger a while longer during FY24. </li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP) reported 4Q23 results last week.  Overall, operating profit of Y40bn in FY23 was Y5bn higher than previous company guidance of Y35bn.
However, Shiseido's China business weakened materially in 4Q23, and 2024/25 guidance seems a bit light. 
I believe FY24 should not be used as a base for valuation because the nuclear wastewater impact is likely to linger a while longer during FY24. 


Shiseido (4911 JP):  Japan On Track While China Was Weak

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-oreal-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21521:1" rel="noopener">L'Oreal SA (OR FP)</a> is the largest beauty company in the world, with a 15% global market share.  The second place in contrast has only around 5% market share. </li>
<li>The company has been excellently managed, and out-performed the overall global beauty industry growth by an average of 5% over the last 3 years.  However, growth could be slowing down.</li>
<li>L'Oreal is now trading at 34x forward PE, which is a near 100% premium over the average of European consumer staples, and near a multi-decade high. </li>
</ul>



L'Oreal SA (OR FP) is the largest beauty company in the world, with a 15% global market share.  The second place in contrast has only around 5% market share. 
The company has been excellently managed, and out-performed the overall global beauty industry growth by an average of 5% over the last 3 years.  However, growth could be slowing down.
L'Oreal is now trading at 34x forward PE, which is a near 100% premium over the average of European consumer staples, and near a multi-decade high. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. </li>
<li>The long thesis is simple - I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.</li>
<li>Blackstone just announced a potential bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
The long thesis is simple - I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L'Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.


Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Market Wrap: Japanese equities edged higher. Easing inflation, BoJ's dovish stance and Wall Street optimism influenced the market. Industrials and basic materials best sectors. </li>
<li>
Major Movers: Shipping disruptions benefit container plays; Shiseido plans reforms to cut ¥40 billion; China's gaming crackdown hits Tencent, NetEase, triggering concerns for Nexon.</li>
<li>
Activist Watch: No new activist holdings to report. However, several funds continue to build stakes in existing holdings. 3D Investment Partners drinks up some more Sapporo shares</li>
</ul>



Market Wrap: Japanese equities edged higher. Easing inflation, BoJ's dovish stance and Wall Street optimism influenced the market. Industrials and basic materials best sectors. 

Major Movers: Shipping disruptions benefit container plays; Shiseido plans reforms to cut ¥40 billion; China's gaming crackdown hits Tencent, NetEase, triggering concerns for Nexon.

Activist Watch: No new activist holdings to report. However, several funds continue to build stakes in existing holdings. 3D Investment Partners drinks up some more Sapporo shares


Japan Weekly | Shippers, Shiseido, Nexon, Sapporo, Glosel

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Shiseido (4911 JP): Japan On Track While China Was Weak

Shiseido Company reported higher operating profit in FY23 than expected, but China business weakened in 4Q23 and 2024/25 guidance is cautious due...

Steve

Pair Trade: L'Oreal / Shiseido

L'Oreal's share price declined by 7.6% on Feb. 9, due to a miss on 4Q23 sales (up 6.9% yoy vs. consensus of +9.5% yoy). This is in line with my...

Steve

Shiseido (4911 JP): This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Steve

Japan Weekly | Shippers, Shiseido, Nexon, Sapporo, Glosel

Japanese equities rise as easing inflation, BoJ's dovish stance, and Wall Street optimism influence the market. Shipping disruptions benefit...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

​Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Shiseido (4911 JP): Japan On Track While China Was Weak

​Shiseido Company reported higher operating profit in FY23 than expected, but China business weakened in 4Q23 and 2024/25 guidance is cautious due...

Steve

Pair Trade: L'Oreal / Shiseido

L'Oreal's share price declined by 7.6% on Feb. 9, due to a miss on 4Q23 sales (up 6.9% yoy vs. consensus of +9.5% yoy). This is in line with my...

Steve

Shiseido (4911 JP): This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

​Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Steve

Japan Weekly | Shippers, Shiseido, Nexon, Sapporo, Glosel

​Japanese equities rise as easing inflation, BoJ's dovish stance, and Wall Street optimism influence the market. Shipping disruptions benefit...

Mark Chadwick

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Shiseido Company reported higher operating profit in FY23 than expected, but China business weakened in 4Q23 and 2024/25 guidance is cautious due...

Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Japanese equities rise as easing inflation, BoJ's dovish stance, and Wall Street optimism influence the market. Shipping disruptions benefit...