Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Nasdaq and SOX Plunged overnight; Nasdaq on Tesla, Neflix; SOX on TSMC Sentiment;   Has something broken?  US Leading Index saying recession near; China deflationary pressures; Russia escalates war</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.5% disc vs Cash; USDJPY 140.1;  Eyes on BOJ  but indications are no tweak;  Nidec turns it around - strong 1Q; Raft of BUY calls from Street. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Japanese companies are hiring IR professionals as they face greater scrutiny from shareholders, the TSE, and regulators. Positive development that we see as an offshoot of the governance code.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Nasdaq and SOX Plunged overnight; Nasdaq on Tesla, Neflix; SOX on TSMC Sentiment;   Has something broken?  US Leading Index saying recession near; China deflationary pressures; Russia escalates war
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.5% disc vs Cash; USDJPY 140.1;  Eyes on BOJ  but indications are no tweak;  Nidec turns it around - strong 1Q; Raft of BUY calls from Street. 
NUGGET. Japanese companies are hiring IR professionals as they face greater scrutiny from shareholders, the TSE, and regulators. Positive development that we see as an offshoot of the governance code.


Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan - IR Talent

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>’s share price is down more than 4% today following a mixed 4Q22 with revenue missing consensus by 2.1% but OP beating by 31.7%.</li>
<li>A lot of optimism was baked in the medium-term plan, but 2023 OP guidance (¥60.0bn) was ¥17.5bn below consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, we think this shouldn’t worry investors too much as Shiseido has outperformed initial guidance by an average of ¥17.0bn over the past 3 years.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP)’s share price is down more than 4% today following a mixed 4Q22 with revenue missing consensus by 2.1% but OP beating by 31.7%.
A lot of optimism was baked in the medium-term plan, but 2023 OP guidance (¥60.0bn) was ¥17.5bn below consensus expectations.
Nevertheless, we think this shouldn’t worry investors too much as Shiseido has outperformed initial guidance by an average of ¥17.0bn over the past 3 years.


Shiseido: Conservative Guidance Is Not a Cause for Concern as Shiseido Almost Always Overdelivers

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -1.1% as Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; All 11 Sectors -ve as Beta Sold; ALPHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; Disney +8% after-hours with earnings beat/job cuts. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.41; Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound;  EARNINGS: Pan Pac/SMM Strong vs weak Subaru which -ve production cut; Toyota out today. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. EPIC fail from Alphabet's "BARD". Aren't these events supposed to  be choreographed ????</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -1.1% as Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; All 11 Sectors -ve as Beta Sold; ALPHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; Disney +8% after-hours with earnings beat/job cuts. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.41; Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound;  EARNINGS: Pan Pac/SMM Strong vs weak Subaru which -ve production cut; Toyota out today. 
DAILY NUGGETS. EPIC fail from Alphabet's "BARD". Aren't these events supposed to  be choreographed ????


Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic "BARD" Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY23 results yesterday, which saw revenue and operating profit decrease by 2.5% and 5.0% YoY respectively to ¥28.3bn (consensus ¥29.8bn) and ¥3.1bn (consensus ¥3.4bn).</li>
<li>Cosmetics growth being the main reason for Fancl’s FY+2 EV/OP of 22.4x, recent trends look scary with cosmetics revenue and OP down 24% and 27% respectively from the pre-COVID level.</li>
<li>Therefore, we would look to short Fancl expecting shares to fall around 25-30% in the short term.</li>
</ul>



Fancl Corp (4921 JP) delivered 3QFY23 results yesterday, which saw revenue and operating profit decrease by 2.5% and 5.0% YoY respectively to ¥28.3bn (consensus ¥29.8bn) and ¥3.1bn (consensus ¥3.4bn).
Cosmetics growth being the main reason for Fancl’s FY+2 EV/OP of 22.4x, recent trends look scary with cosmetics revenue and OP down 24% and 27% respectively from the pre-COVID level.
Therefore, we would look to short Fancl expecting shares to fall around 25-30% in the short term.


FANCL: The Flagship FANCL Brand in Trouble

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate - mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate - mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues
JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!
DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.


Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Ohayo Japan|Nasdaq, SOX Plunge-Did Something Finally Break?; NUGGET: In Demand in Japan - IR Talent

US tech sell off; Has something broken ? NKY Futures -0.5% disc vs Cash; USDJPY 140.1; Eyes on BOJ but indications are no tweak; Nidec turns it...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido: Conservative Guidance Is Not a Cause for Concern as Shiseido Almost Always Overdelivers

A lot of optimism was baked in the medium-term plan, but 2023 OP guidance was ¥17.5bn below consensus. Nevertheless, we think that this shouldn’t...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic "BARD" Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss

Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; ALHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; . Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound; JAPAN EARNINGS: Pan Pac...

Mark Chadwick

FANCL: The Flagship FANCL Brand in Trouble

Cosmetics growth being the main reason for Fancl’s lofty FY24 EV/OP of 22.4x, recent trends look quite scary with cosmetics revenue and OP down by...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)