Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s acquisition of Drunk Elephant for a valuation of $845m was perceived positively, hoping that Shiseido could use Drunk Elephant’s digital marketing expertise to restructure its North America business.</li>
<li>Rather than emulating Drunk Elephant like digital marketing to the company’s other brands, Shiseido has been trying to accommodate all its brands including Drunk Elephant into a hybrid marketing strategy.</li>
<li>This seems to have killed Drunk Elephant’s appeal to its customers. Thus, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> could be facing a massive $845m write-off over the next few years.</li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s acquisition of Drunk Elephant for a valuation of $845m was perceived positively, hoping that Shiseido could use Drunk Elephant’s digital marketing expertise to restructure its North America business.
Rather than emulating Drunk Elephant like digital marketing to the company’s other brands, Shiseido has been trying to accommodate all its brands including Drunk Elephant into a hybrid marketing strategy.
This seems to have killed Drunk Elephant’s appeal to its customers. Thus, Shiseido Company (4911 JP) could be facing a massive $845m write-off over the next few years.


Shiseido: Drunk Elephant Seems an $845m Write-Off

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's government has been more reluctant to open its borders than counterparts in the rest of the world. </li>
<li>Before COVID, Japan welcomed around 31m tourists per annum. The latest cap sets the limit at 18m and drops the requirement for a negative COVID test. </li>
<li>We believe these moves will have a significant positive impact on the retail sector and highlight 3 key beneficiaries</li>
</ul>


Japan's government has been more reluctant to open its borders than counterparts in the rest of the world. 
Before COVID, Japan welcomed around 31m tourists per annum. The latest cap sets the limit at 18m and drops the requirement for a negative COVID test. 
We believe these moves will have a significant positive impact on the retail sector and highlight 3 key beneficiaries


Japan Tourism | 3 Stocks to Buy for Open Borders

<ul>
<li>We turn Bullish on Shiseido. The market has now digested the weak results for 2022 and can look to a recovery over the next year</li>
<li>Recent commentary from Estee Lauder's CEO suggest that China is recovering and that the outlook is bright</li>
<li>Shiseido is one of the key beneficiaries as Japan re-opens its borders to foreign travellers</li>
</ul>


We turn Bullish on Shiseido. The market has now digested the weak results for 2022 and can look to a recovery over the next year
Recent commentary from Estee Lauder's CEO suggest that China is recovering and that the outlook is bright
Shiseido is one of the key beneficiaries as Japan re-opens its borders to foreign travellers


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Berkshire appears set to exit <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a></strong> partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?</li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a></strong>'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.</li>
<li>The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire appears set to exit BYD (1211 HK) partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.
The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.


Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Shiseido: Drunk Elephant Seems an $845m Write-Off

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Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Tourism | 3 Stocks to Buy for Open Borders

Japan has been slow to reopen its borders post COVID. Under pressure to stimulate the economy, Kishida has committed to lifting the cap on...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido (4911 JP) | Wrinkle Free

Shiseido is one of the key beneficiaries as Japan re-opens its borders to foreign travellers. The market has digested the weak near-term results &...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

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