Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and global infrastructure plays. But other issues include continued massive movement outward of people via construction workforces as well as potential and eventual growth of military influence.</p>

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and global infrastructure plays. But other issues include continued massive movement outward of people via construction workforces as well as potential and eventual growth of military influence.

China's New International Political Economy

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

<p>This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal for O2 in the works, a Watson's listing or sale could be a source of permanent funding for this transaction. As an entity with its own currency, Watson's could accelerate its expansion program. The same is true if a retailer with global ambitions buys control.</p>

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal for O2 in the works, a Watson's listing or sale could be a source of permanent funding for this transaction. As an entity with its own currency, Watson's could accelerate its expansion program. The same is true if a retailer with global ambitions buys control.

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.</li>
<li>We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

Hong Kong

Shun Tak is a leading conglomerate with core businesses in property, hospitality & tourism, transportation, and investment sectors. The company is a prominent real estate developer in Macau and a major player in the Hong Kong property market, offering commercial, residential, and retail properties. It also operates high-speed ferry services under the TurboJET brand and provides hotel operations and travel agency services. Founded in 1972, Shun Tak is headquartered in Shun Tak Centre, Hong Kong.

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Shun Tak (242 HK)

China's New International Political Economy

The "new" Economic Silk Belt initiative is not new, and includes more dimensions than initially believed to have. It is a positive for China and...

Charles De Trenck

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's? Part Two

This post is a follow-up to discuss potential follow-on impacts of Hutchison Whampoa's restructuring on the Watson's retail segment. With a deal...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 35 adds & 28 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 29 adds & 20 deletes for Stock Connect. 19 index constituents could be dropped from...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

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