Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April, reportedly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault (RNO FP)</a> might sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> shares to support EV investments. We have news talks are coming to a head. The results won't be pretty.</li>
<li>The Nikkei says the JIP consortium is the "Preferred Bidder" for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. That is a stalking horse. The proposed price of ¥2.5trn is also a stalking horse</li>
<li>Reportedly the Widjaja Family may be looking to take Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> private.</li>
</ul>


In April, reportedly Renault (RNO FP) might sell Nissan (7201 JP) shares to support EV investments. We have news talks are coming to a head. The results won't be pretty.
The Nikkei says the JIP consortium is the "Preferred Bidder" for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). That is a stalking horse. The proposed price of ¥2.5trn is also a stalking horse
Reportedly the Widjaja Family may be looking to take Indonesian/Australian energy/met coal play Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) private.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Renault/Nissan, Toshiba, Golden Energy, Bilibili, Shinsei, Macau Casinos

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly Macau authorities are not satisfied with some concessionaire proposals from gaming firms and require them to increase investment into non-gaming facilities under a concession retendering process</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on some of the gaming plays such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly Macau authorities are not satisfied with some concessionaire proposals from gaming firms and require them to increase investment into non-gaming facilities under a concession retendering process
Preceding my comments on some of the gaming plays such as Melco International Development (200 HK) and Genting Bhd (GENT MK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Macau Plays Need To Up Non-Gaming Game

<ul>
<li>Macau gaming companies gained this week as Hong Kong is expected to ease Covid restrictions, with Macau expected to follow suit.</li>
<li>Last week, the six incumbent Macau gaming operators submitted tenders for the gaming concessions, together with last-minute interloper, the Genting Group.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> has borrowed heavily and also leads other Macau gaming plays in dividends paid out to shareholders. This may not be lost on Macau officials. </li>
</ul>


Macau gaming companies gained this week as Hong Kong is expected to ease Covid restrictions, with Macau expected to follow suit.
Last week, the six incumbent Macau gaming operators submitted tenders for the gaming concessions, together with last-minute interloper, the Genting Group.

Sands China (1928 HK) has borrowed heavily and also leads other Macau gaming plays in dividends paid out to shareholders. This may not be lost on Macau officials. 


Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives

<ul>
<li>In a surprise move, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a> - or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.</li>
<li>The bidding process follows Macau's record low monthly gaming revenue in July after casinos were closed for 12 days in response to a Covid outbreak.</li>
<li>Casinos have re-opened, yet there is little to cheer about as business remains muted. The six winners are expected to be announced by the end of November or early December.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise move, Genting Bhd (GENT MK) - or Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.
The bidding process follows Macau's record low monthly gaming revenue in July after casinos were closed for 12 days in response to a Covid outbreak.
Casinos have re-opened, yet there is little to cheer about as business remains muted. The six winners are expected to be announced by the end of November or early December.


Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

United States

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

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Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Renault/Nissan, Toshiba, Golden Energy, Bilibili, Shinsei, Macau Casinos

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Macau Plays Need To Up Non-Gaming Game

Reportedly Macau authorities are not satisfied with some concessionaire proposals and now require them to increase investment into non-gambling...

David Blennerhassett

Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives

Sands China appears fairly valued here. If I had to bet on one incumbent whose license could be lost, Sand China stands out. For that, I would...

David Blennerhassett

Genting Fancies A Flutter In Macau

Macau's China-like, zero-Covid policy affords limited visibility. In contrast, Singapore reported its highest gaming revenue quarter - April-June -...

David Blennerhassett

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Fastly, Affirm Holdings, Bloom Energy, Wynn Resorts

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Fastly, Affirm...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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