IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We screen for Global companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum:  Intel Corporation and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation.</li>
<li>High Positioning coupled with High Momentum:  Amphenol Corporation and Iberdrola SA </li>
</ul>


We screen for Global companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Global equity funds.
Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum:  Intel Corporation and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation.
High Positioning coupled with High Momentum:  Amphenol Corporation and Iberdrola SA 


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.</li>
<li>National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.</li>
<li>The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.
National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.
The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.


EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digitalbridge-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20231:1" rel="noopener">DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US)</a> at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). </li>
<li>Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). </li>
<li>Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    </li>
</ul>



JTower (4485 JP) has recommended a tender offer from DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US) at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). 
Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). 
Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    


JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.</li>
<li>This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. </li>
<li>I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.</li>
</ul>



Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

Global Funds: Extreme Stocks

In this report, we utilize our Global fund holdings database to screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges.

Steven Holden

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

The JPX Nikkei 400 annual index rebal is upon us. Janaghan's predictions were good at the higher conviction levels. This is OK size (nearly ¥1trln...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

Global Funds: Extreme Stocks

In this report, we utilize our Global fund holdings database to screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges.

Steven Holden

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

​Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

The JPX Nikkei 400 annual index rebal is upon us. Janaghan's predictions were good at the higher conviction levels. This is OK size (nearly ¥1trln...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.