Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Engineering-Construction/Japan-s-Chiyoda-wins-13bn-bid-for-LNG-plants-in-Qatar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported today</a> that Chiyoda, together with its partner Technip, had finally won the order for Qatar’s major expansion of its LNG facilities. The order is for four LNG trains with a combined capacity of 33m tons with completion scheduled for 2025-2027 and an order value of about $13bn.

The Nikkei reported today that Chiyoda, together with its partner Technip, had finally won the order for Qatar’s major expansion of its LNG facilities. The order is for four LNG trains with a combined capacity of 33m tons with completion scheduled for 2025-2027 and an order value of about $13bn.

Equity Bottom-Up

Chiyoda released somewhat weak 2Q results as a weak gross margin more than offset continued discipline at the operating expense line to push the company slightly into the red. The story here remains all about Qatar and the name offers significant value but no incremental driver save that one, requiring investor patience.

Chiyoda released somewhat weak 2Q results as a weak gross margin more than offset continued discipline at the operating expense line to push the company slightly into the red. The story here remains all about Qatar and the name offers significant value but no incremental driver save that one, requiring investor patience.

Chiyoda – COVID Uncertainty Continues to Dog Qatar Order

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> continues to prove its metal releasing a strong set of 9M2020 results, which saw an across the board improvement in margins, despite a decline in sales.  
This was achieved by healthy contributions from all businesses, strict operating expenses control, tight Working Capital Management, together with lower leverage.
Petroleum volumes remained very healthy, with an increasingly diverse customer mix, whilst chemical volumes were slower given its more economically sensitive. 
The company's JIIPE industrial estate (Jakarta Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) saw further land sales but we should expect further plot sales in 4Q2020 and a much higher number in 2021. 
The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> smelter is making progress with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiyoda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1" rel="noopener">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a> appointed as EPC contractor and lease payments coming through on schedule. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a>'s retail petroleum JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21847:1" rel="noopener">BP PLC (BP/ LN)</a> is recovering with expectations of higher growth in 2021 and 2022. 
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> trades on 11.0x FY21E PER versus its 3-year average forward PER of 15.8x, with the expectation of +16.2% EPS growth in FY21E.  This is an interesting proxy for Indonesia's economic recovery, as well as a play on the potential pick-up in foreign investment on the back of the passage of the Omnibus Law. 
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AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) continues to prove its metal releasing a strong set of 9M2020 results, which saw an across the board improvement in margins, despite a decline in sales.  
This was achieved by healthy contributions from all businesses, strict operating expenses control, tight Working Capital Management, together with lower leverage.
Petroleum volumes remained very healthy, with an increasingly diverse customer mix, whilst chemical volumes were slower given its more economically sensitive. 
The company's JIIPE industrial estate (Jakarta Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) saw further land sales but we should expect further plot sales in 4Q2020 and a much higher number in 2021. 
The Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) smelter is making progress with Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) appointed as EPC contractor and lease payments coming through on schedule. 
AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)'s retail petroleum JV with BP PLC (BP/ LN) is recovering with expectations of higher growth in 2021 and 2022. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) trades on 11.0x FY21E PER versus its 3-year average forward PER of 15.8x, with the expectation of +16.2% EPS growth in FY21E.  This is an interesting proxy for Indonesia's economic recovery, as well as a play on the potential pick-up in foreign investment on the back of the passage of the Omnibus Law. 


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Great Omnibus Expectations

Chiyoda’s 1Q was relatively quiet as gross margins recovered and cost control was strong. All attention will remain on the timing of the FID from Qatar which has been pushed back from 1HFY03/21 to 2H FY03/21 but still faces uncertainty given that clients appear to be waiting for more clarity on the length of COVID’s impact before going ahead with projects.

Chiyoda’s 1Q was relatively quiet as gross margins recovered and cost control was strong. All attention will remain on the timing of the FID from Qatar which has been pushed back from 1HFY03/21 to 2H FY03/21 but still faces uncertainty given that clients appear to be waiting for more clarity on the length of COVID’s impact before going ahead with projects.

Chiyoda – Earnings Structure Improves but Qatar Delayed

Nikola Corporation Executive Chairman Trevor Milton has been doing the rounds with social media interviews and recently spoke to noted Tesla sceptic, @TeslaCharts on his podcast. The discussion covered some interesting topics such as grid balancing and other methods to reduce hydrogen costs and Nikola’s unique business concept. In light of the 59% drop in the stock price in just over a month, we examine these topics below.

Nikola Corporation Executive Chairman Trevor Milton has been doing the rounds with social media interviews and recently spoke to noted Tesla sceptic, @TeslaCharts on his podcast. The discussion covered some interesting topics such as grid balancing and other methods to reduce hydrogen costs and Nikola’s unique business concept. In light of the 59% drop in the stock price in just over a month, we examine these topics below.

Nikola – Grid Balancing, Hydrogen and Vertical Integration

Japan

CHIYODA CORPORATION constructs, inspects, and maintains industrial plants around the world.  Those plants include oil refinery, petrochemical, food, and pharmaceutical plants.  The Company also provides comprehensive engineering services for such as energy saving, factory automation (FA), and environmental preservation for water treatment and soil purification.

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Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)

Chiyoda – Qatar Comes Through

Chiyoda's win of a massive $13bn LNG train order from Qatar significantly strengthens the long-term outlook as it could snowball into effective...

Mio Kato

Chiyoda – COVID Uncertainty Continues to Dog Qatar Order

Chiyoda results were mediocre but are unlikely to drive the stock as the key swing factor remains Qatar. The company expects an FID in 2H.

Mio Kato

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Great Omnibus Expectations

AKR Corporindo is a key proxy for Indonesia's economic recovery and a play on the potential pick-up in foreign investment on the back of the...

Angus Mackintosh

Chiyoda – Earnings Structure Improves but Qatar Delayed

Chiyoda’s 1Q was relatively quiet as gross margins recovered and cost control was strong. All attention will remain on the timing of the FID from...

Mio Kato

Nikola – Grid Balancing, Hydrogen and Vertical Integration

Nikola Corporation Executive Chairman Trevor Milton has been doing the rounds with social media interviews and recently spoke to noted Tesla...

Mio Kato

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