External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Unbranded Generic and distribution to drive FY24F top line, while CH and Nutrition revenue normalized</li><li>We raised FY24-25F NP by 4.5-2.9%, driven by the absence of covid inventory provision and forex gain</li><li>We upgrade KLBF to Buy (from Hold prev.) on its resilient growth profile, attractive valuation and light positioning</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Unbranded Generic and distribution to drive FY24F top line, while CH and Nutrition revenue normalizedWe raised FY24-25F NP by 4.5-2.9%, driven by the absence of covid inventory provision and forex gainWe upgrade KLBF to Buy (from Hold prev.) on its resilient growth profile, attractive valuation and light positioningContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF.IJ) - Resilient Growth Outlook at Reasonable Valuation

<ul><li>Post FY23 earnings (broadly in-line vs our est.), KLBF guides for further improvements in FY24F revenues/ EPS growth at 6-7% and 13-15% yoy.</li><li>Despite the management’s guidance, we see limited catalysts for revenue growth to improve beyond 2Q24 amid soft purchasing power.</li><li>We keep our FY24-25F EPS growth forecast (3-10% yoy) and DCF-based TP of Rp1,600, with a Hold rating on the unexciting growth outlook.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Post FY23 earnings (broadly in-line vs our est.), KLBF guides for further improvements in FY24F revenues/ EPS growth at 6-7% and 13-15% yoy.Despite the management’s guidance, we see limited catalysts for revenue growth to improve beyond 2Q24 amid soft purchasing power.We keep our FY24-25F EPS growth forecast (3-10% yoy) and DCF-based TP of Rp1,600, with a Hold rating on the unexciting growth outlook.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kalbe Farma - Retaining Our Conservative FY24 View

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.</li>
<li>Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada</a> continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.</li>
</ul>



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.
Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.

Adi Sarana Armada continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> continued to experience a high post-COVID base effect in 3Q2023, with consumer habits shifting to leisure versus health plus there was a softening of consumer demand.</li>
<li>The company also experienced higher raw material prices and higher operating expenses which depressed margins but expectations are for a recovery in margins in 4Q2023 and FY2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma</a> stands out as Indonesia's largest pharmaceutical company with strong exposure to consumer health and nutritional products with rising health consciousness amongst Indonesians. Valuations do not reflect impending recovery.</li>
</ul>



Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) continued to experience a high post-COVID base effect in 3Q2023, with consumer habits shifting to leisure versus health plus there was a softening of consumer demand.
The company also experienced higher raw material prices and higher operating expenses which depressed margins but expectations are for a recovery in margins in 4Q2023 and FY2024. 

Kalbe Farma stands out as Indonesia's largest pharmaceutical company with strong exposure to consumer health and nutritional products with rising health consciousness amongst Indonesians. Valuations do not reflect impending recovery.


Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - The End of a Long Transition

<ul><li>We are turning more cautious on KLBF’s FY23-25F EPS growth as we see threat for its branded prescription drugs from the persisting rising trend of hospital patients visits from JKN patients in 9M23 (17% CAGR in 2014-22).</li><li>Against this headwind, we project a lower FY24F earnings growth of 2.9% yoy (21-27% cut in FY23-25F est.) and cut our rating to HOLD with a lower TP of IDR1,600.</li><li>Hospital operators MIKA, HEAL and SILO have reported further increase in revenue portion from JKN patients in 9M23, continuing the trend from the past few years (data shown by National Health Program/ BPJS that showed 17% CAGR in 2014-22 (34% in FY22) increase in total number of visits by JKN patients to healthcare facilities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are turning more cautious on KLBF’s FY23-25F EPS growth as we see threat for its branded prescription drugs from the persisting rising trend of hospital patients visits from JKN patients in 9M23 (17% CAGR in 2014-22).Against this headwind, we project a lower FY24F earnings growth of 2.9% yoy (21-27% cut in FY23-25F est.) and cut our rating to HOLD with a lower TP of IDR1,600.Hospital operators MIKA, HEAL and SILO have reported further increase in revenue portion from JKN patients in 9M23, continuing the trend from the past few years (data shown by National Health Program/ BPJS that showed 17% CAGR in 2014-22 (34% in FY22) increase in total number of visits by JKN patients to healthcare facilities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Persisting Headwind in FY24 from Shifting Industry Trend

Indonesia

Kalbe Farma is an Indonesian pharmaceutical, healthcare, and nutrition company. It specializes in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, nutritional supplements, and consumer health items. The company was founded on September 10, 1966, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)