Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.</li>
<li>Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.</li>
</ul>


Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.


Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

<ul>
<li>Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.</li>
<li>The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.</li>
<li>The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.</li>
</ul>


Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.
The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.
The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.


Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) </a>is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China. </li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China. 
We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th and highlight short interest changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note....

Nicholas Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th and highlight short interest changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

​Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

​Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note....

Nicholas Tan

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...