Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zijin Mining delivered a strong H1 2025 with net profit up 55% YoY, comfortably ahead of guidance.</li>
<li>We have raised FY25–27 earnings by 20–25%, with further upside optionality from the planned Zijin Gold spin-off.</li>
<li>Trading at ~11.4x 2026E P/E and ~10.3x 2027F, with EV/EBITDA at 6.3x and 5.8x respectively, Zijin’s valuations remain undemanding—supporting a bullish, accumulate stance.</li>
</ul>


Zijin Mining delivered a strong H1 2025 with net profit up 55% YoY, comfortably ahead of guidance.
We have raised FY25–27 earnings by 20–25%, with further upside optionality from the planned Zijin Gold spin-off.
Trading at ~11.4x 2026E P/E and ~10.3x 2027F, with EV/EBITDA at 6.3x and 5.8x respectively, Zijin’s valuations remain undemanding—supporting a bullish, accumulate stance.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK | 601899 CH) H1 2025: Profit Beats, Estimates Raised on Gold & Copper

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 30th April 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0430/2025043003439.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.</li>
<li>The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation's largest gold mine.</li>
<li>A Circular is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0610/2025061000537.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a> concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation's largest gold mine.
A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
</ul>


5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

<ul>
<li>Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.</li>
<li>Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.</li>
<li>The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.</li>
</ul>


Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.


Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Mining (2899 HK | 601899 CH) H1 2025: Profit Beats, Estimates Raised on Gold & Copper

Zijin Gold International is preparing a Hong Kong IPO in September 2025, targeting US$2 billion. It filed its A1 application on 30 June, and on 26...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

The record date for 1) entitlement to the Zijin Gold offering and 2) interim divi, will be the 12 Sept. The last day for dealing in the H shares...

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Zijin Mining (2899 HK | 601899 CH) H1 2025: Profit Beats, Estimates Raised on Gold & Copper

Zijin Gold International is preparing a Hong Kong IPO in September 2025, targeting US$2 billion. It filed its A1 application on 30 June, and on 26...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

The record date for 1) entitlement to the Zijin Gold offering and 2) interim divi, will be the 12 Sept. The last day for dealing in the H shares...

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

​Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Rahul Jain

Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.