Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.</li>
<li>The deal was undoubtedly accelerated by Reuters breaking the news of a possible equity raising on 15th May 2023.</li>
<li>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.
The deal was undoubtedly accelerated by Reuters breaking the news of a possible equity raising on 15th May 2023.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Larger than Rumored, Some Indications of Finality

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). </li>
<li>The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. </li>
<li>My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.</li>
</ul>


This past week, nearly 150 companies in Japan announced buyback programmes totalling ¥2.1trln. 3 Tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks (including at least 5 delayed starts). 
The median on-market buyback was 2.40% of shares, the average 2.9% (both measured as practical maxima at announcement. Median/Average % of ADV was 7.6/9.2%. 
My prediction that this will be a record year for stock buybacks still stands.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener">ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11405:1" rel="noopener">Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY1,980 per share, a 54.1% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 16.61% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive. </li>
</ul>



ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP) has recommended Marubeni Corp (8002 JP) and Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,980 per share, a 54.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 16.61% ownership ratio.
The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate. This is doable as the tender price is attractive. 


Arteria Networks (4423 JP): JPY1,980 Tender Offer from Marubeni and SECOM

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% and will result in a round-trip trade of JPY 412.8bn (US$3.16bn) at the close on 31 March.</li>
<li>There has been recent pre-positioning on the stocks as well as movement in short interest over the last couple of months.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Japan Airlines (9201 JP) will replace Toyobo (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP), Toho Zinc (5707 JP) in the Nikkei 225.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% and will result in a round-trip trade of JPY 412.8bn (US$3.16bn) at the close on 31 March.
There has been recent pre-positioning on the stocks as well as movement in short interest over the last couple of months.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Larger than Rumored, Some Indications of Finality

Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering. In this note, we talk about the deal structure and the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week

Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a...

Travis Lundy

Arteria Networks (4423 JP): JPY1,980 Tender Offer from Marubeni and SECOM

The offer is conditional on Chinese and Japanese regulatory approvals. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 33% minority acceptance rate....

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Passives Trade on Friday

Oriental Land, Renesas, JAL replace Toyobo, Nippon Light Metal, Toho Zinc. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.08% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

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