Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As short-term rates rise, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Japan Post - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silicon-integrated-systems" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7244:1" rel="noopener">Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
Preceding my comments on Japan Post - and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is "Cheap"

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,172.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,885mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components, Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,172.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,885mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components, Hon Hai Precision.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.</li>
<li>Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  </li>
<li>Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst</li>
<li>UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short</li>
<li>ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

<ul>
<li>Intel Tapes Out New PC Chips on TSMC 2nm -- Dual-Node Nova Lake Strategy Shows Dependence on TSMC... and Value of UMC for INTC in the Long-Term</li>
<li>DRAM Memory Outlook -- Nanya Results See Non-AI DRAM Demand Rebound; DDR4 Shortage Tightens, Expects Continued Strength in 2H25</li>
<li>PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year </li>
</ul>


Intel Tapes Out New PC Chips on TSMC 2nm -- Dual-Node Nova Lake Strategy Shows Dependence on TSMC... and Value of UMC for INTC in the Long-Term
DRAM Memory Outlook -- Nanya Results See Non-AI DRAM Demand Rebound; DDR4 Shortage Tightens, Expects Continued Strength in 2H25
PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC - What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is "Cheap"

As rates go up, Investors may simply prefer to get exposure directly with JPB; and this may be contributing to a short squeeze on JPB's stock. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC - What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

Intel relies on TSMC for new PC chips, Nanya sees rebound in non-AI DRAM demand, PC unit growth expected to continue in 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is "Cheap"

As rates go up, Investors may simply prefer to get exposure directly with JPB; and this may be contributing to a short squeeze on JPB's stock. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.

​TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Tapes Out New Chips at TSMC - What It Means; PC Demand Growth in Focus

​Intel relies on TSMC for new PC chips, Nanya sees rebound in non-AI DRAM demand, PC unit growth expected to continue in 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC expects strong revenue growth in 3Q25 despite FX challenges, driven by demand in AI and HPC, aiming to maintain gross margin above 53%. Full...

Intel relies on TSMC for new PC chips, Nanya sees rebound in non-AI DRAM demand, PC unit growth expected to continue in 2025.