Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth</li>
<li>Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank's pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.</li>
</ul>


Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth
Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank's pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver
Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.


Bank of Jiangsu - Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23):  Financials & Communications Dominate Flows

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>PBOC and NAFR included Bank of Nanjing in its latest D-SIBs list, increasing the total D-SIBs to 20</li>
<li>13 benchmarks were used to assess the D-SIBs using 1H23 data</li>
<li>All D-SIBs fulfilled their additional capital requirements as of 1H23, but the buffer is wearing thin for some especially in view of the difficult economic environment </li>
</ul>


PBOC and NAFR included Bank of Nanjing in its latest D-SIBs list, increasing the total D-SIBs to 20
13 benchmarks were used to assess the D-SIBs using 1H23 data
All D-SIBs fulfilled their additional capital requirements as of 1H23, but the buffer is wearing thin for some especially in view of the difficult economic environment 


China's New List Of D-SIBs' Capital Buffer Is Wearing Thin For Some

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Lianlian DigiTech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech</a>  is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and JP Morgan.</li>
<li>LianLian DigiTech is a digital technology company that provides a range of digital payment services and value-added services to customers in China and around the world.</li>
<li>The firm ranked first among all independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech  is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and JP Morgan.
LianLian DigiTech is a digital technology company that provides a range of digital payment services and value-added services to customers in China and around the world.
The firm ranked first among all independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.


Bank of Chongqing Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination</li>
<li>BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth</li>
<li>PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk</li>
</ul>


Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination
BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth
PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk


Bank of Chongqing - One Of Worst NIM Contraction, But With High Loan Growth

China

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. operates in commercial banking businesses. The Bank provides deposit, loan, settlement, discount, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting and trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related financial services.

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China Minsheng Banking A (600016 CH)

Bank of Jiangsu - Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

Dramatically lower fee income, far higher realized gains, and lower credit costs are driving net profit growth, and do not suggest a positive or...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows

Quiddity A-H Premia Monitor with interactive tables/charts, and trade recos. Net portfolio performance has been positive every week since re...

Travis Lundy

China's New List Of D-SIBs' Capital Buffer Is Wearing Thin For Some

China's total D-SIBs increased to 20 with addition of BONJ. All banks on the list complied with the additional capital requirements as end of 1H23...

Fern Wang

LianLian DigiTech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Lianlian DigiTech is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and JP Morgan.

Sumeet Singh

Bank of Chongqing - One Of Worst NIM Contraction, But With High Loan Growth

NIM contraction at BOC is severe and this is despite high loan growth. Risk is that this worsens in coming quarters, with weaker economy. Credit...

Daniel Tabbush

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