Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Falling implied vols contrasted with deteriorating breadth and relative weakness in HSI versus global peers such as SPX.</li>
<li>Single stock option volumes remained firm even without major contribution from recent high-volume names, with Calls continuing to dominate overall activity.</li>
<li>HSI implied vols moved closer to one-year lows while average single stock implied vols also declined across most sectors and constituents.</li>
</ul>


Falling implied vols contrasted with deteriorating breadth and relative weakness in HSI versus global peers such as SPX.
Single stock option volumes remained firm even without major contribution from recent high-volume names, with Calls continuing to dominate overall activity.
HSI implied vols moved closer to one-year lows while average single stock implied vols also declined across most sectors and constituents.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (May 15 – 21): Stocks Lags as Rates Continue Rising

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>For the most part, China bank’s 1H18 profit growth YoY (and 2Q18 YoY) is from realized and unrealized trading gains, investment gains and fair value gains. The largest four banks are the only major exceptions due to significant low-cost deposits and expansive sticky customer base. From the commentary that we have heard on China banks’ 1H18 earnings, we do not believe the focus is on the underlying reality.  There are negative implications where earnings quality is worsening considerably, while at the same time, it is likely that 2H18 is fundamentally worse, thereby making putting further pressure on core income and profit growth.</p>

For the most part, China bank’s 1H18 profit growth YoY (and 2Q18 YoY) is from realized and unrealized trading gains, investment gains and fair value gains. The largest four banks are the only major exceptions due to significant low-cost deposits and expansive sticky customer base. From the commentary that we have heard on China banks’ 1H18 earnings, we do not believe the focus is on the underlying reality.  There are negative implications where earnings quality is worsening considerably, while at the same time, it is likely that 2H18 is fundamentally worse, thereby making putting further pressure on core income and profit growth.

China Banks – Profit Growth Is Only From Securities Gains

<p>In December 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a 270-page report assessing China’s financial sector and specifically how the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has fared in its observance of Basel core principles. It may not be coincidental that the China regulator(s) have become stricter during 2018. Two key shortcomings highlighted in the report are worth exploring further: special mention loans and interbank lending.  Many of China’s banks will see a surge in bad loans…</p>

In December 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a 270-page report assessing China’s financial sector and specifically how the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has fared in its observance of Basel core principles. It may not be coincidental that the China regulator(s) have become stricter during 2018. Two key shortcomings highlighted in the report are worth exploring further: special mention loans and interbank lending.  Many of China’s banks will see a surge in bad loans…

China Banks – Special Mention Loans and Bank Lending Under Fire from IMF

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 182 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.9% as of May 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer staples, information technology and offset by communication services, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power, China Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 182 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 71.9% as of May 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, consumer staples, information technology and offset by communication services, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power, China Telecom.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 15th): Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 15th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&amp;C, Kuaishou, Petrochina, Zijin Mining, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Xiaomi, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 15th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&amp;C, Kuaishou, Petrochina, Zijin Mining, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Xiaomi, Ping An Insurance.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 15th): Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&C, Kuaishou, Petrochina

China

Bank of China is a state-owned Chinese multinational banking and financial services corporation. It offers a comprehensive range of financial services, including corporate banking, personal banking, investment banking, insurance, asset management, and foreign exchange transactions. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 1912.

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Bank of China (3988 HK)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (May 15 – 21): Stocks Lags as Rates Continue Rising

Weak internals and lower implied vols contrasted with resilient single stock option activity as HSI continued to underperform against a backdrop of...

John Ley

China Banks – Profit Growth Is Only From Securities Gains

For the most part, China bank’s 1H18 profit growth YoY (and 2Q18 YoY) is from realized and unrealized trading gains, investment gains and fair...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks – Special Mention Loans and Bank Lending Under Fire from IMF

In December 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a 270-page report assessing China’s financial sector and specifically how the China...

Daniel Tabbush

A-H Premium Weekly (May 15th): Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Datang Power, CIMC, Beone Medicines, Midea, Weichai Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (May 15th): Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan, PICC P&C, Kuaishou, Petrochina

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Meituan (3690...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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