Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.</li>
<li>MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.</li>
<li>Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.</li>
</ul>


First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.
MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.
Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.


Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Active Global funds averaged +15.5% YTD, trailing the SPDR ACWI ETF’s +18.8%, with 73% underperforming the benchmark.</li>
<li>Value strategies led performance; Aggressive Growth funds lagged sharply, averaging just +10.15%.</li>
<li>Underweights in US Tech names like NVIDIA and Palantir, plus 2.4% cash holdings, drove relative losses.</li>
</ul>


Active Global funds averaged +15.5% YTD, trailing the SPDR ACWI ETF’s +18.8%, with 73% underperforming the benchmark.
Value strategies led performance; Aggressive Growth funds lagged sharply, averaging just +10.15%.
Underweights in US Tech names like NVIDIA and Palantir, plus 2.4% cash holdings, drove relative losses.


Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Companies in the public cloud are refreshing their server infrastructure every four to five years, but may accelerate this cycle due to the performance benefits of new CPUs and GPUs.</li><li>Despite advances in technology, older GPUs are still being used and making money for data centers, leading to questions about the economic lifespan of GPU systems.</li><li>Hyperscalers have adjusted their accounting policies to depreciate server hardware over longer periods, potentially impacting depreciation expenses.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Companies in the public cloud are refreshing their server infrastructure every four to five years, but may accelerate this cycle due to the performance benefits of new CPUs and GPUs.Despite advances in technology, older GPUs are still being used and making money for data centers, leading to questions about the economic lifespan of GPU systems.Hyperscalers have adjusted their accounting policies to depreciate server hardware over longer periods, potentially impacting depreciation expenses.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 138: Talking GPU Depreciation, OCP Takeaways

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

<ul><li>US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisions</li><li>Markets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecast</li><li>OpenAI's ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpoints</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisionsMarkets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecastOpenAI's ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpointsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meta (META US)

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Global active funds face another uphill year—Value shines, but benchmark dominance, missed US Tech winners, and high cash weights keep most...

Steven Holden

EP 138: Talking GPU Depreciation, OCP Takeaways

Public cloud infrastructure refreshes involve periodically replacing servers with new CPUs, but the longer economic lifespan of older GPUs like...

The Circuit

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

The US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, but markets climb with limited economic consequences, as investors focus on interest...

The Synopsis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

​GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Active Funds Struggle to Close the Gap in 2025

Global active funds face another uphill year—Value shines, but benchmark dominance, missed US Tech winners, and high cash weights keep most...

Steven Holden

EP 138: Talking GPU Depreciation, OCP Takeaways

Public cloud infrastructure refreshes involve periodically replacing servers with new CPUs, but the longer economic lifespan of older GPUs like...

The Circuit

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

The US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, but markets climb with limited economic consequences, as investors focus on interest...

The Synopsis

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...