Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.</li><li>Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.</li><li>I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.</li></ul>

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?</li><li>The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.</li><li>I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.</li></ul>

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue range at around $205,590 million and for 2026 at around $258,431 million.</li><li>The company’s annual revenue reached $164,501 million in 2024 compared to $134,902 million in 2023, posting an increase by 21.94%.</li><li>META’s gross profit for FY 2024 was $134,340 million, increased by 23.31% compared to $108,943 million for the corresponding period of 2023. </li></ul>

Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue range at around $205,590 million and for 2026 at around $258,431 million.The company’s annual revenue reached $164,501 million in 2024 compared to $134,902 million in 2023, posting an increase by 21.94%.META’s gross profit for FY 2024 was $134,340 million, increased by 23.31% compared to $108,943 million for the corresponding period of 2023. 

META PLATFORMS, INC. - Equity Research Flash Note - April 4, 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Meta reported 1Q25 results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to US$42.3bn, largely in line with consensus estimate; operating income grew by 27% YoY to US$17.6bn, 13% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly due to control in certain non-headcount-related opex.</li><li>As a result, management lowered FY25 total expenses guidance by US$1bn to US$113-118bn (+19-24% YoY); but raised FY25 capex guidance to US$64-72bn (+63-84%, previous: US$60-65bn) reflecting additional data centre investment and increased hardware costs.</li><li>For 2Q25E, management expects total revenue to grow by 9-16% YoY to US$42.5- 45.5bn, with decelerating growth which factors in the macro uncertainty and reduced ad spending from Asia-based e-commerce exporters. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meta reported 1Q25 results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to US$42.3bn, largely in line with consensus estimate; operating income grew by 27% YoY to US$17.6bn, 13% ahead of consensus estimate, mainly due to control in certain non-headcount-related opex.As a result, management lowered FY25 total expenses guidance by US$1bn to US$113-118bn (+19-24% YoY); but raised FY25 capex guidance to US$64-72bn (+63-84%, previous: US$60-65bn) reflecting additional data centre investment and increased hardware costs.For 2Q25E, management expects total revenue to grow by 9-16% YoY to US$42.5- 45.5bn, with decelerating growth which factors in the macro uncertainty and reduced ad spending from Asia-based e-commerce exporters. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

<ul><li>The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.</li><li>It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.</li><li>AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.</li></ul>

The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I'd Buy Meta.

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings. Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia. I...

Fabricated Knowledge

Meta's Moat

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009? The number that got the highest votes...

MBI Deep Dives

META PLATFORMS, INC. - Equity Research Flash Note - April 4, 2025

META’s gross profit for FY 2024 was $134,340 million, increased by 23.31% compared to $108,943 million for the corresponding period of 2023.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Meta (META US) - 1Q25 Results Beat

We lower our FY25-27 total revenue forecast by 0-1%, and trim our target price to US$760 based on 30x FY25E PE (previous: US$835 on 32x FY25E PE)....

CMB International

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I'd Buy Meta.

The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.

Fallacy Alarm

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