Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dec-25 (1Q26) results are 7% above Consensus, Mar-26 guidance 7% above Consensus. Revenue growth accelerated from ~6% in FY25 to ~15% in 1H26. For a company of that size: impressive.</li>
<li>IPhone revenue up 23%, China 38% YoY. “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” can continue into Mar-Jun-26. Part of Mar-26 strengths comes from supply constraints in Dec-25 (i.e. TSMC 3nm).</li>
<li>Consensus should be ~5-7% too low on FY26. This doesn’t mean that FY27-28 will also increase: Apple is a product-cycle company. Valuations high, as usual: 30x forward EPS.</li>
</ul>


Dec-25 (1Q26) results are 7% above Consensus, Mar-26 guidance 7% above Consensus. Revenue growth accelerated from ~6% in FY25 to ~15% in 1H26. For a company of that size: impressive.
IPhone revenue up 23%, China 38% YoY. “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” can continue into Mar-Jun-26. Part of Mar-26 strengths comes from supply constraints in Dec-25 (i.e. TSMC 3nm).
Consensus should be ~5-7% too low on FY26. This doesn’t mean that FY27-28 will also increase: Apple is a product-cycle company. Valuations high, as usual: 30x forward EPS.


Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> attracted our attention because it has been selling off for 6 weeks (if this week's close is confirmed down, i.e. below 271.01).</li>
<li>Apple sell-off started in early December, and has been pretty much monodirectional with no rallies.</li>
<li>
<strong>Our model thinks the stock is quite oversold and may soon rally back. </strong>Most likely the rally will take place from the end of this week, or next week.</li>
</ul>



Apple (AAPL US) attracted our attention because it has been selling off for 6 weeks (if this week's close is confirmed down, i.e. below 271.01).
Apple sell-off started in early December, and has been pretty much monodirectional with no rallies.

Our model thinks the stock is quite oversold and may soon rally back. Most likely the rally will take place from the end of this week, or next week.


Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Apple Inc.'s recent earnings call for Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 presents a mixed yet enlightening perspective on the company's performance and outlook.</li><li>Apple reported revenue of $102.5 billion, marking an 8% increase year-over-year, a record for the September quarter.</li><li>This growth was significantly driven by the Services segment, which achieved an all-time revenue record of $28.8 billion, up 15% from the previous year.</li></ul>

Apple Inc.'s recent earnings call for Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 presents a mixed yet enlightening perspective on the company's performance and outlook.Apple reported revenue of $102.5 billion, marking an 8% increase year-over-year, a record for the September quarter.This growth was significantly driven by the Services segment, which achieved an all-time revenue record of $28.8 billion, up 15% from the previous year.

Apple’s AI Gamble: Out With Giannandrea, In With Subramanya!

<ul><li>The mega-cap tech landscape is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with Apple standing out—not through bold declarations or eye-catching AI launches—but by quietly reclaiming record highs.</li><li>While Alphabet grabs headlines with its rapid rise past $4 trillion in valuation on the back of its Gemini AI breakthroughs, and Nvidia reels from a staggering $720 billion market cap drawdown, Apple has surged more than 36% since early summer.</li><li>This momentum is driven by robust iPhone 15 demand and a noticeable absence from the aggressive AI capital arms race dominating the likes of Meta, Oracle, and SoftBank.</li></ul>

The mega-cap tech landscape is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with Apple standing out—not through bold declarations or eye-catching AI launches—but by quietly reclaiming record highs.While Alphabet grabs headlines with its rapid rise past $4 trillion in valuation on the back of its Gemini AI breakthroughs, and Nvidia reels from a staggering $720 billion market cap drawdown, Apple has surged more than 36% since early summer.This momentum is driven by robust iPhone 15 demand and a noticeable absence from the aggressive AI capital arms race dominating the likes of Meta, Oracle, and SoftBank.

Apple's Strategic Distance From The AI Spending War: Discipline Or Delay?

<ul><li>Apple Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing an impressive performance with total revenue reaching $102.5 billion, an 8% increase from the same period last year, marking a record for the September quarter.</li><li>The company's services sector set an all-time revenue record with $28.8 billion, reflecting a substantial 15% growth, largely driven by strong demand across developed and emerging markets.</li><li>Additionally, the company saw a record earning per share (EPS) of $1.85, marking another significant achievement.</li></ul>

Apple Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing an impressive performance with total revenue reaching $102.5 billion, an 8% increase from the same period last year, marking a record for the September quarter.The company's services sector set an all-time revenue record with $28.8 billion, reflecting a substantial 15% growth, largely driven by strong demand across developed and emerging markets.Additionally, the company saw a record earning per share (EPS) of $1.85, marking another significant achievement.

Apple’s Global Conquest Just Got Real—How It’s Winning in India, Brazil, & Beyond!

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%

Apple: Impressive revenue growth, iPhone sales drive Apple's strong performance, with potential for continued strength in the coming quarters.

Nicolas Baratte

Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...

Nico Rosti

Apple’s AI Gamble: Out With Giannandrea, In With Subramanya!

Apple Inc.'s recent earnings call for Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 presents a mixed yet enlightening perspective on the company's performance and...

Baptista Research

Apple's Strategic Distance From The AI Spending War: Discipline Or Delay?

The mega-cap tech landscape is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with Apple standing out—not through bold declarations or eye-catching AI...

Baptista Research

Apple’s Global Conquest Just Got Real—How It’s Winning in India, Brazil, & Beyond!

Apple Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing an impressive performance with total revenue...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%

Apple: ​Impressive revenue growth, iPhone sales drive Apple's strong performance, with potential for continued strength in the coming quarters.

Nicolas Baratte

Apple (AAPL US) Tactical BUY Opportunity This Week

​Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...

Nico Rosti

Apple’s AI Gamble: Out With Giannandrea, In With Subramanya!

Apple Inc.'s recent earnings call for Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 presents a mixed yet enlightening perspective on the company's performance and...

Baptista Research

Apple's Strategic Distance From The AI Spending War: Discipline Or Delay?

The mega-cap tech landscape is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with Apple standing out—not through bold declarations or eye-catching AI...

Baptista Research

Apple’s Global Conquest Just Got Real—How It’s Winning in India, Brazil, & Beyond!

Apple Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing an impressive performance with total revenue...

Baptista Research

Apple: Impressive revenue growth, iPhone sales drive Apple's strong performance, with potential for continued strength in the coming quarters.

Apple stock has been on a 6-week sell-off streak, but our model suggests it may soon rally back from oversold levels. This could be a good...