Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> could be added the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> respectively next week following the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Then we have the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a> spinoff in May that will add to the changes at the regular rebalance in June for the indices.</li>
<li>Short interest has spiked on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> recently following the huge rally in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) and Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) could be added the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 respectively next week following the privatisation of Crown Resorts (CWN AU). 
Then we have the Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) spinoff in May that will add to the changes at the regular rebalance in June for the indices.
Short interest has spiked on Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) recently following the huge rally in the stocks.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A KKR led consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> at A$88/share in cash.</li>
<li>The offer values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> at A$20.14bn and is a premium of 36.7% to the last close. The premium is over 30% even using longer term VWAPs.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.</li>
</ul>


A KKR led consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) at A$88/share in cash.
The offer values Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) at A$20.14bn and is a premium of 36.7% to the last close. The premium is over 30% even using longer term VWAPs.
There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.


Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU): Indicative Proposal from KKR & Index Implications

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a>’s demerger will create two standalone companies listed on the ASX - The Lottery Corporation and New Tabcorp</li>
<li>The scheme meeting to approve the demerger will be held on 12 May at 10.00 am. The Lottery Corporation will trade on a normal settlement basis on 2 June.</li>
<li>This transaction aims to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is A$6.13 per share, which is a 14% upside to the last close price of A$5.39 per share.</li>
</ul>



Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)’s demerger will create two standalone companies listed on the ASX - The Lottery Corporation and New Tabcorp
The scheme meeting to approve the demerger will be held on 12 May at 10.00 am. The Lottery Corporation will trade on a normal settlement basis on 2 June.
This transaction aims to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is A$6.13 per share, which is a 14% upside to the last close price of A$5.39 per share.


Tabcorp’s Valuation Discovery into the Demerger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a></strong> has registered the Demerger Booklet in relation to the proposed demerger of The Lottery Corporation.</li>
<li>The demerger general meeting and Scheme Meeting will be held on the 12 May with a potential demerger date on the 1 June. </li>
<li>The independent expert estimates the lottery ops <em>may</em> be worth up to A$11.6bn and wagering A$2.7bn, against Tabcorp's current market cap of A$11.6bn.</li>
</ul>



Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) has registered the Demerger Booklet in relation to the proposed demerger of The Lottery Corporation.
The demerger general meeting and Scheme Meeting will be held on the 12 May with a potential demerger date on the 1 June. 
The independent expert estimates the lottery ops may be worth up to A$11.6bn and wagering A$2.7bn, against Tabcorp's current market cap of A$11.6bn.


Tabcorp To Split Lotteries and Wagering Businesses

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021.</li>
<li>The lock-up from that deal is set to expire later this month, which will result in an additional 12.5% of the company’s shares, worth US$670m (A$927m) being unlocked. </li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the recent results and the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021.
The lock-up from that deal is set to expire later this month, which will result in an additional 12.5% of the company’s shares, worth US$670m (A$927m) being unlocked. 
In this note we will talk about the recent results and the upcoming lockup expiry.


IDP Education Placement - Time for Round 2 (US$700m Worth) Of the Selldown

Australia

Tabcorp Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides gambling, gaming, wagering, and entertainment services. Tabcorp Holdings serves customers in Australia and in the United Kingdom.

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Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

There could be one change in May followed by a bunch of changes in June. SVW and LKE could be added on 3 May following CWN's privatisation. TAH's...

Brian Freitas

Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU): Indicative Proposal from KKR & Index Implications

A KKR led consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) at A$88/share in cash....

Brian Freitas

Tabcorp’s Valuation Discovery into the Demerger

The scheme meeting to approve the demerger will be held on 12 May at 10.00 am. Our SoTP valuation is A$6.13 per share, which is a 14% upside to the...

Arun George

Tabcorp To Split Lotteries and Wagering Businesses

Shares are up 2.9% as I type. Back of the napkin suggests a minimum of ~15% upside from here from the demerger. I'd be picking up shares here.

David Blennerhassett

IDP Education Placement - Time for Round 2 (US$700m Worth) Of the Selldown

Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021....

Sumeet Singh

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