Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Sany Heavy Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.</li>
<li>IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.</li>
<li>There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Sany Heavy Industry is target price of CNY21.1 per share. This represents 7.6% lower than current price of CNY22.83 per share.
IPO price of Sany Heavy is expected to be set between HKD20.30 and HKD21.30. Our valuation analysis suggests lack of a meaningful upside for Sany Heavy Industry listing in HK.
There are still lack of a major turnaround of the property market in China and this could continue to negatively impact the overall construction equipment market in China.


Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Caterpillar's earnings for the first quarter of 2024 highlighted a strong quarter with sales and revenues maintaining levels consistent with the last year, largely meeting the company’s expectations.</li><li>A key aspect was the continuation of healthy demand for its products and services across major end markets.</li><li>Thanks to its robust balance sheet and free cash flow, the company was able to allocate a remarkable $5.1 billion for share repurchases and dividends during the quarter.</li></ul>

Caterpillar's earnings for the first quarter of 2024 highlighted a strong quarter with sales and revenues maintaining levels consistent with the last year, largely meeting the company’s expectations.A key aspect was the continuation of healthy demand for its products and services across major end markets.Thanks to its robust balance sheet and free cash flow, the company was able to allocate a remarkable $5.1 billion for share repurchases and dividends during the quarter.

Caterpillar Inc.: A Deep Dive Into Its Key Areas Of Competitive Advantage & Recent Strategic Investments! - Major Drivers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd-1015204b-78d5-4a57-8bf4-dd7c110ead89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36380:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicles Group (301039 CH)</a> (CIMCV) is a leading global manufacturer of semi-trailers and various truck bodies that is the mainstay of heavy ground goods transport  </li>
<li>9M23 earnings surged by 216% and beat consensus, scope for further earnings upgrade as the business and management outlook statement is very positive   </li>
<li>Our target price of CNY12.50 (+31% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 15x - a 10% discount against the industry leader Caterpillar </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicles Group (301039 CH) (CIMCV) is a leading global manufacturer of semi-trailers and various truck bodies that is the mainstay of heavy ground goods transport  
9M23 earnings surged by 216% and beat consensus, scope for further earnings upgrade as the business and management outlook statement is very positive   
Our target price of CNY12.50 (+31% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 15x - a 10% discount against the industry leader Caterpillar 


CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential

<ul><li>The Q4 2023 earnings by Caterpillar indicate the company has delivered a strong quarter and a solid year, with several record financial milestones.</li><li>This includes record sales and revenues, adjusted profit margin, adjusted profit per share, and Machinery, Energy & Transportation (ME&T) free cash flow.</li><li>These positive results are driven by healthy demand across most end markets for their products and services, displaying robust operational efficiency by the firm.</li></ul>

The Q4 2023 earnings by Caterpillar indicate the company has delivered a strong quarter and a solid year, with several record financial milestones.This includes record sales and revenues, adjusted profit margin, adjusted profit per share, and Machinery, Energy & Transportation (ME&T) free cash flow.These positive results are driven by healthy demand across most end markets for their products and services, displaying robust operational efficiency by the firm.

Caterpillar Inc: Reinvestment into Strategic Initiatives & Services Expansion & Other Major Drivers

United States

Caterpillar Inc. designs, manufactures and markets construction, mining and forestry machinery. The Company also manufactures engines  and other related parts for its equipment, and offers financing and insurance. Caterpillar distributes its products through a worldwide organization of dealers.

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Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Sany Heavy priced its IPO at HK$21.3 per share (at the high end of the IPO price range). This is just 2% lower than our base case valuation of the...

Douglas Kim

Caterpillar Inc.: A Deep Dive Into Its Key Areas Of Competitive Advantage & Recent Strategic Investments! - Major Drivers

Caterpillar's earnings for the first quarter of 2024 highlighted a strong quarter with sales and revenues maintaining levels consistent with the...

Baptista Research

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential

CIMC Vehicles Group is a global leader in manufacturing semi-trailers and truck bodies, with strong earnings growth potential and a target price...

Mohshin Aziz

Caterpillar Inc: Reinvestment into Strategic Initiatives & Services Expansion & Other Major Drivers

The Q4 2023 earnings by Caterpillar indicate the company has delivered a strong quarter and a solid year, with several record financial...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sany Heavy Industry IPO Valuation Analysis

Sany Heavy priced its IPO at HK$21.3 per share (at the high end of the IPO price range). This is just 2% lower than our base case valuation of the...

Douglas Kim

Caterpillar Inc.: A Deep Dive Into Its Key Areas Of Competitive Advantage & Recent Strategic Investments! - Major Drivers

Caterpillar's earnings for the first quarter of 2024 highlighted a strong quarter with sales and revenues maintaining levels consistent with the...

Baptista Research

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential

​CIMC Vehicles Group is a global leader in manufacturing semi-trailers and truck bodies, with strong earnings growth potential and a target price...

Mohshin Aziz

Caterpillar Inc: Reinvestment into Strategic Initiatives & Services Expansion & Other Major Drivers

The Q4 2023 earnings by Caterpillar indicate the company has delivered a strong quarter and a solid year, with several record financial...

Baptista Research

CIMC Vehicles Group is a global leader in manufacturing semi-trailers and truck bodies, with strong earnings growth potential and a target price...