Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

New World Development's (NWD) FY 2023-24 results were weak, but in line with expectations as flagged by the company's profit warning earlier in September. We expect the company’s revenue and EBITDA to improve in FY 2024-25, supported by new project launches in Hong Kong as well as contributions from new K11 commercial assets in Hong Kong and Mainland China. While NWD has continued to reduce net debt, leverage weakened on account of the weaker earnings and smaller asset base (due to disposals). Cash/ST Debt is inadequate, though we believe the company's liquidity is manageable due to its continued access to financing. In particular, we note positively NWD's receipt of a HKD 1 bn unsecured loan, as well as its ability to tap the USD bond market in August 2024. The resignation of Adrian Cheng as NWD’s CEO (as well as from the Boards of NWD’s sister companies) is surprising in our view, though we believe the impact is credit neutral. We move to "Buy" from "Hold" on the NWDEVL notes, as we view the yields as attractive.

  New World Development's (NWD) FY 2023-24 results were weak, but in line with expectations as flagged by the company's profit warning earlier in September. We expect the company’s revenue and EBITDA to improve in FY 2024-25, supported by new project launches in Hong Kong as well as contributions from new K11 commercial assets in Hong Kong and Mainland China.   While NWD has continued to reduce net debt, leverage weakened on account of the weaker earnings and smaller asset base (due to disposals). Cash/ST Debt is inadequate, though we believe the company's liquidity is manageable due to its continued access to financing. In particular, we note positively NWD's receipt of a HKD 1 bn unsecured loan, as well as its ability to tap the USD bond market in August 2024.   The resignation of Adrian Cheng as NWD’s CEO (as well as from the Boards of NWD’s sister companies) is surprising in our view, though we believe the impact is credit neutral.   We move to "Buy" from "Hold" on the NWDEVL notes, as we view the yields as attractive. 

New World Development - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion was not the panacea for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.</li>
<li>As widely expected, Adrian Cheng is stepping down as NWD's CEO, to be replaced by Eric Ma,  Hong Kong’s former secretary for development.</li>
<li>NWD will also sell the rights to provide property management services under the K11 brand to Adrian; and potentially sell its stake in Kai Tak Sports Park to its parent.</li>
</ul>


Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion was not the panacea for New World Development (17 HK) and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.
As widely expected, Adrian Cheng is stepping down as NWD's CEO, to be replaced by Eric Ma,  Hong Kong’s former secretary for development.
NWD will also sell the rights to provide property management services under the K11 brand to Adrian; and potentially sell its stake in Kai Tak Sports Park to its parent.


Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7037'>New World Development</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.New World Development

Morning Views Asia: New World Development

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this update, we analyzed recent NWD’s corporate actions, which show their de-leveraging plan is on track</li>
<li>NWD, having the highest gearing among HK RE names, will become the biggest beneficiary if Fed starts a new rate cut cycle</li>
<li>Valuation is compelling.  There is ample upside assuming a bear case scenario.  It is a BUY</li>
</ul>


In this update, we analyzed recent NWD’s corporate actions, which show their de-leveraging plan is on track
NWD, having the highest gearing among HK RE names, will become the biggest beneficiary if Fed starts a new rate cut cycle
Valuation is compelling.  There is ample upside assuming a bear case scenario.  It is a BUY


NWD 17 HK Update: De-Leveraging in Process, the Biggest Beneficiary of Fed Rate Cut Cycle

Hong Kong

New World Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, provides contracting services, property management, and transportation services.  The Company also operates infrastructure business, telecommunication services, department stores, hotels and restaurants, and media and technology business.

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New World Development (17 HK)

New World Development - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

New World Development's (NWD) FY 2023-24 results were weak, but in line with expectations as flagged by the company's profit warning earlier in...

Lucror Analytics

New World Development - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

New World Development's (NWD) FY 2023-24 results were weak, but in line with expectations as flagged by the company's profit warning earlier in...

Lucror Analytics

New World Dev (17 HK): Board Games

I'd avoid NWD. While refreshing to see a HK property conglomerate run by someone outside its founding family, it's not clear what new innovation Ma...

David Blennerhassett

Morning Views Asia: New World Development

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

NWD 17 HK Update: De-Leveraging in Process, the Biggest Beneficiary of Fed Rate Cut Cycle

NWD's deleveraging plan is on track, on the back of non core disposal and reduced capex. NWD has the highest gearing among peers, it will have...

Jacob Cheng

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