Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)</a> is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crasus-chemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58630:1" rel="noopener">Crasus Chemical (646A JP)</a> spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine (8766 JP)</a> reportedly identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>. It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">IAG (IAG AU)</a> is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corporation-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings (3396 HK)</a> remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. </li>
</ul>



Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this Crasus Chemical (646A JP) spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.

Tokio Marine (8766 JP) reportedly identified Suncorp (SUN AU). It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. IAG (IAG AU) is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.

Legend Holdings (3396 HK) remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>According to latest, market is pricing in an 89% probability of 1 rate cut (25bps) and 11% probability of 2 rate cuts (50bps) in upcoming September FOMC meeting</li>
<li>We think the easing trade is still happening. Under this macro backdrop, Asia listed developers and REITs will benefit from linked interest rate movements</li>
<li>In particular, developers with high gearing will benefit the most.  Buy NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT on the back of attractive valuation</li>
</ul>


According to latest, market is pricing in an 89% probability of 1 rate cut (25bps) and 11% probability of 2 rate cuts (50bps) in upcoming September FOMC meeting
We think the easing trade is still happening. Under this macro backdrop, Asia listed developers and REITs will benefit from linked interest rate movements
In particular, developers with high gearing will benefit the most.  Buy NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT on the back of attractive valuation


Quick Note: The US Easing Trade: Buy Asia Leveraged Developers and REITs, NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT

<ul>
<li>2025 YTD, HK/China RE companies rebounded from recent lows (10% - 30%), and we think this will continue and turn into a sector re-rating</li>
<li>A combination of reduced global geopolitical tensions, expected monetary easing from US, China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, HK’s robust capital inflow and lower interbank rate will support re-rating</li>
<li>Despite recent rebound, valuation remains attractive.  We recommend LONG COLI 688 HK and SHKP 16 HK.  For higher risk tolerance and higher beta, we recommend NWD 17 HK</li>
</ul>


2025 YTD, HK/China RE companies rebounded from recent lows (10% - 30%), and we think this will continue and turn into a sector re-rating
A combination of reduced global geopolitical tensions, expected monetary easing from US, China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, HK’s robust capital inflow and lower interbank rate will support re-rating
Despite recent rebound, valuation remains attractive.  We recommend LONG COLI 688 HK and SHKP 16 HK.  For higher risk tolerance and higher beta, we recommend NWD 17 HK


HK/China Real Estate Bottoming Out, Upcoming Re-Rating with Multiple Catalysts

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China</li>
<li>We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening</li>
<li>Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks</li>
</ul>


New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China
We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening
Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks


Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

<ul>
<li>The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once</li>
<li>Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital</li>
<li>We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China</li>
</ul>


The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China


Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Quick Note: The US Easing Trade: Buy Asia Leveraged Developers and REITs, NWD, COLI, SHKP, Link REIT

Powell has opened the door for rate cuts and market is expecting at least 25bps rate cut in September. We suggest to buy Asia high gearing name...

Jacob Cheng

HK/China Real Estate Bottoming Out, Upcoming Re-Rating with Multiple Catalysts

2025 YTD, HK and China developers have rebounded 10-30%. We think the re-rating will continue, driven by 1) reduced global tensions 2) US rate...

Jacob Cheng

Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

This is relevant to new insight on HK banks with worsening HFD for LDR and real estate lending growth now at most negative rates in the HKMA...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore's banks are all giving back lots of capital to shareholders. This may appear to be good for yield, but it suggests to us that lending...

Daniel Tabbush

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