Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It's a weak stub. And given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a>'s direct upstream ops amid high crude oil prices, I'd be disinclined to short the company here against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-petroleum-exploration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1" rel="noopener">JAPEX (1662 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Keswick chips away at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s minorities via scrip dividends and buybacks; as JMH completes the  US$2.4bn i-Med acquisition. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-southeast-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)</a> (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage), popped ~10% ahead of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> in-specie-distribution and special dividend.</li>
</ul>


It's a weak stub. And given Inpex Corp (1605 JP)'s direct upstream ops amid high crude oil prices, I'd be disinclined to short the company here against JAPEX (1662 JP).
Keswick chips away at Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s minorities via scrip dividends and buybacks; as JMH completes the  US$2.4bn i-Med acquisition. 

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage), popped ~10% ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Inpex, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia, Genting

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Softbank claims Toyota's crown as Japan's largest company as ARM +15.7% on NVDA's PC superchip announcement.</li>
<li>QD Laser and TDK announce RGB laser partnership for building mass-production capability for smart-glasses hardware.</li>
<li>Space names facing heavy profit taking again despite Astroscale -14.2%, QPS -13.9% and Axelspace -10.6% yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Softbank claims Toyota's crown as Japan's largest company as ARM +15.7% on NVDA's PC superchip announcement.
QD Laser and TDK announce RGB laser partnership for building mass-production capability for smart-glasses hardware.
Space names facing heavy profit taking again despite Astroscale -14.2%, QPS -13.9% and Axelspace -10.6% yesterday.


Japan Morning Connection: Long AI Short Software Trade Unwinding as Jensen Backs Software

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,228m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec, Simplex, Furukawa Electric, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Taiyo Yuden, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,228m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec, Simplex, Furukawa Electric, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Taiyo Yuden, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 2nd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-southeast-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)</a> (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), popped ~10% today ahead of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> in-specie-distribution and special dividend.</li>
<li>The record date for both is the 9th October, with payment on (or before) 2nd December. </li>
<li>JMSEA's implied stub value is around its highest-ever level. As is the simple ratio of JMSEA/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-astra-international-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>. Neither are sustainable. Borrow is (reportedly) non-existent.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), popped ~10% today ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.
The record date for both is the 9th October, with payment on (or before) 2nd December. 
JMSEA's implied stub value is around its highest-ever level. As is the simple ratio of JMSEA/Astra International (ASII IJ). Neither are sustainable. Borrow is (reportedly) non-existent.


Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) Pops On Toyota In-Specie & Special Div

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Inpex, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia, Genting

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Long AI Short Software Trade Unwinding as Jensen Backs Software

Software set to surge with Jensen’s narrative that AI agents will consume more software, and that demand for software engineers is set to sharply...

Andrew Jackson

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 2nd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) Pops On Toyota In-Specie & Special Div

I get JMSEA's outperformance vs Astra given the weakening rupiah, Indonesia's MSCI overhang; and JMSEA's value unlock strategy. But to what point?...

David Blennerhassett

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